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100 ordspråk av Kevin Norrish

Kevin Norrish

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The catalyst for the move higher appears to have been the release of a weather forecast drawing attention to the likelihood of another cold winter, prompting a surge of buying interest in winter fuel markets on both sides of the Atlantic.

People were expecting builds across the board. On that basis the market reaction that we have had is not surprising...It looks like product strength has the potential to return.

It's because we've had such an explosive rise in heating oil prices -- I don't think we've ever seen such a dramatic increase in the spread between heating oil and crude.

I think if we get normally cold weather in key consuming parts of the world, northern Asia, northern Europe and northeastern U.S., that's going to be very testing.

There's still a lot of uncertainty about the balances in the short term,

It's moving up and down. We've got an erosion of the idea that there has been massive demand destruction while ... at the same time you have got some pretty mild weather on both sides of the Atlantic.

The U.S. refinery system has been showing signs of severe tightness. The shut-in of refining capacity from Katrina is then not so much a straw, but rather a large log on top of an already fully laden camel.

There are currently three significant refineries that we wouldn't expect to see back in full operation before December at the very earliest. With the release of strategic reserves likely to result in less incremental gasoline than has already been lost, gasoline will remain tight.

What we are seeing is not a function of the world running out of oil. What we are seeing is the legacy of a very long period where investment has been far too low. The problem is getting the oil out of the ground and delivering it to consumers.

Weather continues to be the key short term factor determining energy price direction.

Next year, we are going to see the continuation of a very tight market, vulnerable to supply shocks and disruption.

Whilst the immediate impact on European energy prices has been negligible, the dispute has served to emphasize the dependence of Western Europe on Russian gas supplies and the issue has the potential to keep European gas consumers on edge for some time.

Prices fell back (Wednesday) after the resolution to the Russia-Ukraine gas dispute.

This is a significant escalation over and above previous events. It's very, very serious indeed.

We believe that Iran is going to be a major issue in the coming months, and that so far the potential severity of the situation has not been priced in to any significant extent.

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