195 ordspråk av Ray Neidl

Ray Neidl

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It's an improved situation. The question is, are some people getting over-excited about it?.

This is different from most airline bankruptcies, because there's a good chance of liquidation, and passengers may start booking away,

That's a lot of slots for BA to give up.

But (American) faces the longer-term risk of not being able to cut costs fast enough to match the Chapter 11 carriers. We believe that the upside potential in the stock price may be limited due to the potential of heavy dilution from previous and future employee concessions.

Delta is going to be tough sledding. They're not an immediate chance of bankruptcy. But they clearly have the highest wage costs for their pilots now. They have to do something.

The price-earnings multiple, based on future earnings forecasts, is still fairly low, in the 5 to 6 range. These P/E multiples can go as high as 10. There's still some upside for most of them, except maybe Delta.

The advantage to American is they could buy assets very cheaply, since TWA has very low equity value, and also it would prevent another airline from moving into St. Louis and competing with American if TWA were to fail.

It looks like it's a big deal for them (AMR and UAL) because they keep raising the ante. Canada by itself is a very small market, but it does have a strategic geographic importance, and it's right next to the American market, which makes it all the more important.

I think the street overreacted to fuel costs and Y2K. But this is not to say that estimates won't come down for the first quarter. Fuel prices are even higher now and it's very difficult in short term for carriers to control that cost.

I've never heard of them, and I don't give it much credibility. I think you're crazy paying anything for TWA.

The original US Airways/United proposal was almost dead on arrival. I don't think regulators would have ever approved that. But by allowing a powerful company like American to come into many Eastern markets ... I think that will make regulators feel a little better.

Probably the TWA system fits in a little bit better with the American system than it would with many other airlines. There could be some other bids that develop, but right now that's only a 50-50 chance at most.

The bankruptcy court doesn't think TWA is viable as a stand-alone carrier and neither do I. It would need a massive infusion of capital, it'd need a completely new game plan, and it'd need massive concessions from labor, which it's not going to get.

The odds are still against an approval. Are the concessions all 'hard dollars' is the question that the ATSB and analysts are asking.

I wouldn't be surprised if it passed. Maybe the machinists are just trying to send a message to everybody. Also, the machinists are a big part of the skilled workers and maybe some of them thought they could do just as well if they left United -- if United were to go out of business.

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