112 ordspråk av Stephen Stanley

Stephen Stanley

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The case for continued rate hikes has become, if anything, more compelling since Katrina.

Fed officials have made clear that their heightened inflation concerns are related more to the outlook than the present situation. Thus, inflation fears have intensified even as core measures of prices have been exceedingly well behaved.

This speaks to very robust underlying momentum in the economy, which is one of the reasons why the Fed will have to keep going.

The unemployment report, for once, was essentially as expected in November. The employment situation seems to have pretty much worked through the job losses associated with the hurricanes. Now, we wait for those jobs to be recovered over the next 3 to 6 months.

When the economy's weak, there's always a potential competitor who will undercut you on price, but when everybody's doing decent business, there's not as much urgency on the pricing front. When consumers are mostly employed and their incomes are going up, they're more inclined to accept some price increases.

The numbers were considerably more moderate than we and others had expected. We have gotten back to pre-hurricane numbers. (But), I don't view this as the beginning of a sustained downturn.

The minutes kind of fed into the sentiment in the market right now that the Fed is closer to done. The minutes threw lighter fuel on that one.

The ISM manufacturing index moderated significantly in December, moving from torrid to healthy territory.

We think the economy will grow stronger for longer than the market and the Fed do. We look for substantial further tightening to be required.

The overall manufacturing sector is doing OK with the exception of autos. We continue to see recovery in the industries that were hit by the hurricanes, and then on top of all that it was a cold December.

The crux of the statement was unchanged (from the last meeting), ... They said that policy remains accommodative, but that the central bank will respond to changes as needed. That's been the mantra since the tightening period began last June.

The stock market has been pretty stubbornly hewing to the idea that the economy is slowing down and the Fed may stop soon, ... So to the extent that people perceive the statement as a little more hawkish, it's maybe upsetting.

The question is, How much of this feeds through all the way down the production process? Do companies end up having to swallow the cost increases or can they pass it through?

There is no signal that the Fed is nearing the end (of its tightening cycle), and that's been the one consistent thing.

January auto sales were clearly much better than expected. We are on a pace to see a month-to-month increase in the seasonally adjusted sales pace, perhaps to around 17.7 million units or so.

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