112 ordspråk av Stephen Stanley

Stephen Stanley

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The big picture for the consumer still looks good.

The relatively moderate figures for current conditions should be weighed to some degree against robust expectations for the six-month outlook.

The economy is clearly strong right now, and that's what these numbers reflect. In the short term, there's a risk people will pull back on spending, but that depends on how long gas prices stay high, and so far there's not much evidence the consumer is slowing down.

The economy is clearly advancing nicely right now and it will in our view take more than a 5% funds rate to slow it down.

The indicators of prices ... are beginning to point more clearly toward inflation pressures.

The employment number will be the key for the stock market next week.

We've had this pattern of strong month, weak month lately. May numbers were weaker and the expectation is for June numbers to be stronger.

But certainly the market should be focused on the core number, since that's what the Fed looks at. We're looking for an 0.2 percent increase, which wouldn't cause a big reaction in the market.

The best way to summarize the message is

In terms of monetary policy right now, most people expect the Fed to tighten during the next two or three meetings, but it's foggy beyond that. Greenspan didn't really say much to clarify, either in his comments or in the question period. He was appropriately non-committal, and so there's been little reaction from stocks.

If what we see in these surveys is truly the case, then there will be a clash in the boardroom as these two decide how best to move the company forward.

Today's report should convince most market participants that the March softness in the data was primarily a one-month phenomenon. Sounds like a recipe for continued 25 basis-point rate hikes for the foreseeable future.

The jobs numbers were definitely on the soft side, and so stocks are down.

What stock investors probably need to be thinking about now is 'what are profit margins doing?'. A little inflation wouldn't be so bad for the stock market, for Corporate America, but it wouldn't be good for the economy or the consumer.

Oil is playing a positive role for stocks and the bond market today. Also, the markets are coming off a rough stretch, which makes this bounce pretty understandable.

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