The recovery is not ordspråk

The recovery is not firmly in place. There is no reason to withdraw stimulus right now. The need is to make sure that the recovery in Japan is self-sustained -- and that means it's hard to see any good reason for monetary policy to tighten.

Stanley Fischer

Ending super-easy monetary policy is a big plus for the equity market because it means economic recovery is going to be sustained, the exit from deflation is for real, and the economy is becoming a more normal economy.

There's concern about demand for new five-year notes as signs of economic recovery raised speculation an end of easy monetary policy will come sooner than later next year. Japan avoided political chaos with Koizumi's strong victory, which provides a fair wind to stocks and a recovery scenario.

Inflation is not even a remote risk in the U.S.. Because inflation is so low, monetary policy can afford to be patient to be sure that the recovery is sustained.

We are very confident about the long-term outlook for our business, but believe that the immediate impact will be a further weakening in the operating environment and a delay in the economic recovery, ... However, given increased fiscal and monetary stimulus, we anticipate that long-term economic recovery should be more certain and vigorous than previously expected.

A quarter-point cut [Tuesday] could weaken confidence by reinforcing pessimism in the market place, ... Instead, [Fed] Chairman Greenspan should stand pat, sending a positive message that economic recovery is in sight and no additional monetary stimulus is needed.

With core consumer prices set to rise steadily above zero and today's GDP report confirming that a steady recovery is at work, there is almost no obstacle left for the Bank of Japan in ending its super-loose monetary policy.

We see a recovery in Europe, not very acute but a recovery, and we see a more broad-based recovery in Japan.

[This is the most sluggish recovery on record, which seems to puzzle the Fed chairman. But it reflects the Greenspan style of running things; he presided over a similarly tepid recovery in the early 1990s. Tom Schlesinger, director of the Financial Markets Center, a monetary-policy watchdog, thinks the lopsided economy is the most disturbing hallmark of Greenspan's governance.] The Fed has said almost nothing about this, except [vice chairman] Roger Ferguson says there's nothing the Fed can do particularly, ... The jobless recovery appears to be a new feature of the US business cycle. Yet the principal agent of economic management says nothing.

Tom Schlesinger

Disasters, whether natural or man-made, are forms of economic stimulus. Most of the replacement comes out of insurance-instead of out of normal cash flows. That's the reason that any disaster gives you a silver lining of economic recovery.

The ECB is confident about the pace of the recovery and the forces driving the recovery and thinks it is time to remove the excess stimulus put in three years ago. Rates are still accommodative.

Japan is still at a very nascent stage of recovery from the long market slump and that recovery will continue into 2006. A market gain in Japan may also have some positive ripple effects on neighboring Asian markets.

The market is beginning to price in not only a significant recovery but a quick recovery. For that reason we think the market is vulnerable.

Clearly, the economic fundamentals of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as the falling value of the dollar, support a recovery. What we're not sure of is how strong the recovery is going to be.

Japan's big problem was that fiscal stimulus was not there. They haven't coordinated monetary policy with fiscal policy. That's what we're doing differently, and that's why we won't have the same problem.

Robert MacIntosh

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