Last Friday's unexpectedly weak ordspråk

Last Friday's unexpectedly weak employment report caused interest rates on long-term Treasury bonds and, by extension mortgage rates, to fall as investors worried about the health of the U.S. economy.

Amy Crews Cutts

Corporate accounting concerns caused fierce investor buying of U.S. Treasury bonds, thereby lowering their yields. Other long-term interest rates followed suit in bringing fixed-rate mortgage rates within a slim margin of their 30-year record low set last November.

Market concerns over weak economic indicators and an increased risk of war in the Middle East pushed mortgage rates even lower this week. That and falling stock prices raised investors' appeal for U.S. Treasury bonds, which in turn allowed most interest rates to drift even lower.

Mortgage interest rates were up this week on news that February employment figures suggested an economic upturn. That news, however, puts a bit of upward pressure on long-term mortgage rates.

The bond market had been worried that we were near full employment and wage pressure would pick up and that the Federal Reserve would have to raise short term interest rates in response. But now that the all important employment cost index was up just 0.6 percent, the Fed doesn't need to raise short term rates because the economy is slowing down.

The decline in mortgage rates was primarily due to a weak employment report for September, which suggested economic growth is still a bit subdued. As a result, we expect mortgage rates will continue to stay quite affordable over the next few months, benefiting future homebuyers,

The strength in employment growth and an unexpected jump in consumer credit in January helped push mortgage rates a little higher this week. While long-term interest rates are at the highest level since May of 1998, they are still very affordable, particularly when compared to the 1970s and 1980s.

Renewed concern over the threat of inflation pushed up long-term mortgage rates, while the most recent Fed statement caused short-term rates to float upwards,

Consumer spending has kept the economy moving, and when initial holiday sales were better than expected, financial markets reacted with enthusiasm. It was this potential pick-up in the economy that caused interest rates, including mortgage rates, to drift upwards this week.

The release of the August jobs report showed a continuation of the jobless recovery...this, of course, caused interest rates, including mortgage rates, to ease back from the highest level we had seen in a year.

They would like to raise rates, but right now, keeping rates a little too low would cause the least harm in the economy. If they raise rates after this weak employment report, people will be hollering. George Bush would be hollering the loudest.

[But a weak economy also means job loss and relocation are more likely.] Mortgage rates have dropped, yes, but a weak economy means people lose jobs or feel insecure in their jobs. Some potential buyers may end up backing off from a purchase, ... When the economy picks up after a slowdown, interest rates usually rise, but that doesn't stop people from buying.

In spite of the job losses caused by hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the employment report was better than had been expected. This indicates that economic growth is likely to accelerate in 2006. That acceleration of growth, coupled with the specter of higher energy costs, will translate into higher long-term mortgage rates in the coming months.

Anticipation that the Federal Reserve may well cut rates at its next meeting, combined with further weakness in certain sectors of the economy, caused interest rates to fall again.

The rise in mortgage rates stalled this week primarily because of rising tensions in other parts of the world, causing foreign investors to flee to the security of U.S. Treasuries. Consequently, yields remained mainly unchanged from last week, and so did long-term mortgage rates.

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