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The details of the GDP report may have given Treasuries a boost as the Fed's preferred inflation target, the core personal consumption expenditures index, was revised down to 1.7 percent from 2 percent for the first quarter,

The details of the GDP report may have given Treasuries a boost as the Fed's preferred inflation target, the core personal consumption expenditures index, was revised down to 1.7 percent from 2 percent for the first quarter.

The 1.9 percent December year-over-year rise in the core personal consumption expenditure index reflects a stable and modest inflation rate. That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.

Real consumption expenditures will likely be a full percentage above our earlier estimates of 5.0 percent to 5.5 percent. As a result, real GDP in the first quarter is more likely between 5.5 percent and 6.0 percent.

Stephen Gallagher

The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price deflator was revised from 0.7 percent annual rate to 1.0. That's still very low, but it was revised upward instead of downward. There is possibly some building inflationary pressure, but it's still very benign.

The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price deflator was revised from 0.7 percent annual rate to 1.0, ... That's still very low, but it was revised upward instead of downward. There is possibly some building inflationary pressure, but it's still very benign.

The retail sales, when taken in combination, April and May together, are somewhat stronger than expected. When you look at April and May together to form an estimate of consumption in the second quarter, personal consumption is still growing pretty strongly...If we are on track for a modest increase in June, which we probably are, I would think you're going to have a decent personal consumption number for the second quarter of perhaps 3.0 percent.

Richard Gilhooly

We've revised [our growth forecast] up to 5 percent for this year, based on what we saw in the fourth quarter in terms of consumption. The strength of consumption surprised us somewhat in how robust it was.

James McCormack

On the inflation front, the Fed got a little more breathing room in that the year-over-year change in the core PCE price index fell from 1.9 percent to 1.8 percent.

Combining the data on construction spending, manufacturing inventories, capital goods shipments, and wholesale inventories released since the GDP report, we now see fourth quarter GDP being revised up to 1.5 percent from the advance estimate of 1.1 percent.

This is a very preliminary report, and it will surely be revised downward in the neighborhood of 5 or 5.5 percent, but even that is extraordinary, coming off of last quarter's growth. People know that it will be revised downward, and so maybe they are a little cautious today, but you need to look at the longer-term implications of this.

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This is a very preliminary report, and it will surely be revised downward in the neighborhood of 5 or 5.5 percent, but even that is extraordinary, coming off of last quarter's growth, ... People know that it will be revised downward, and so maybe they are a little cautious today, but you need to look at the longer-term implications of this.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) figures released today show an overall increase of 0.6 percent, but the core rose only a very modest 0.1 percent, indicating the actual rate of inflation is still very low. This good news points to a continuation of current affordable mortgage rates in the coming months.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) figures released today show an overall increase of 0.6 percent, but the core rose only a very modest 0.1 percent, indicating the actual rate of inflation is still very low, ... This good news points to a continuation of current affordable mortgage rates in the coming months.

If there was a surprise (in the GDP report), it was that the deflator and core PCE were revised up a bit. So, slightly slower growth than expected, although it's still a relatively robust 4.1 percent.

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