In this economy we ordspråk
In this economy, we don't have inflation as long as you don't want to eat, don't want to drive or move around.
Gregory Miller
Well, I think the Fed's move, the Fed's hiking of rates next week, which we expect, should show the markets that the Fed is ahead of the inflation curve. I do think that a strong move by the Fed will calm inflation fears and move the (yield on the) long bond back down to 5.88 percent or 5.9 percent.
John Eade
The Fed will be more upbeat, but there's still a long way to go before they make any move. This economy is just beginning to really grow. Until we get real job creation, there will be no inflation worries -- and we're not there yet.
Robert MacIntosh
I think (the market) needs the ECI price deflator numbers coming in at acceptable levels, meaning that they don't raise the fear of inflation, it needs the Fed not raising interest rates in August and as we move toward the fall, continuing signs that the economy is moderating and that inflation is low.
Richard Cripps
The Fed has pledged to keep the economy and inflation in check, which they're doing now, which will keep the fed funds rate going higher. Low inflation and global demand for U.S. Treasuries will remain strong in 2006, which will keep long rates low.
Kevin Giddis
My view is that the economy is on a very solid track. As long as the inflation rate stays where it is there's no reason not to have the economy continue to grow.
William Poole
Not only is the economy slowing but it is a reminder that inflation risks diminish as the economy slows. It emphasizes that the Fed would be quite well justified for easing policy as early as next week, a move to a neutral bias with a rate cut being the next logical step in January.
Paul Christopher
If the economy roars back, you can always take the cuts back. But suppose you're wrong on the other side, and the economy continues to languish? With the slack already in the markets, inflation is likely to move lower still.
Joshua Feinman
(
1971
-)
I don't think we can discount the legitimate concern that the Fed has been pumping too much liquidity into the economy. It may be that they have to backpedal furiously as the economy starts to recover. Inflation has been down for so long, it may be hard to imagine it ever getting back up -- but you better believe it still can.
Bill Cheney
The question for the Fed is what inflation will look like in 12 to 18 months. The U.S. economy is still growing fast enough to use up slack that's out there in the economy, and that could present an inflation threat down the road.
Michael Gregory
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Brian Billick
Affärer
It is gradual step towards a little more flexibility. Inflation, the economy and the markets will dictate how much further they go. They say the economy is strong and that inflation risks are tilted a little to the upside. There is nothing yet in the data that will stop the Fed.
Ethan Harris
The inflation threat clearly seems to be fading as the economy cools, ... signal that the Fed may now shift its emphasis to growing the economy rather than fighting inflation. It allows them to start thinking about a rate cut sooner rather than later.
Oscar Gonzalez
The Fed is going to put more emphasis on fighting inflation than on maintaining growth, if that risks putting the economy into a recession. It's not a course I would choose. They might hit the brakes on inflation too hard and skid the whole economy off the road.
Peter Morici
The general feeling in the market is that the economy may have bottomed out and recovery is in sight, ... It is just that sort of atmosphere that kept mortgage rates from falling last week. But if the economy begins to overheat and inflation becomes a threat once again, mortgage rates will almost certainly begin to rise in response. Currently, however, inflation is well contained and there is ample room for the economy to recover.
Frank Nothaft
The general feeling in the market is that the economy may have bottomed out and recovery is in sight. It is just that sort of atmosphere that kept mortgage rates from falling last week. But if the economy begins to overheat and inflation becomes a threat once again, mortgage rates will almost certainly begin to rise in response. Currently, however, inflation is well contained and there is ample room for the economy to recover.
Frank Nothaft
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