The economy may stagnate ordspråk

The economy may stagnate but it's not going to inflate. The core rate of inflation probably peaked in March.

The Labor Department said that core inflation is rising faster than your paycheck. Through the first three months of this year overall inflation is up by 4.3%, last year the rate was 3.4%. Energy prices are up by 21.8% compared with 17.1% last year; core inflation, excluding food and energy, is up by 2.8% and March was the largest increase in all categories.

On balance, headline inflation has likely peaked, but the core rate is at the top end of the Fed's comfort zone, which will keep [chairman Allan] Greenspan's foot firmly on the brakes,

On balance, headline inflation has likely peaked, but the core rate is at the top end of the Fed's comfort zone, which will keep [chairman Allan] Greenspan's foot firmly on the brakes.

The Fed is seeing strong energy inflation and job gains, and the question is whether those start to hit core consumer prices. To date, core inflation has been growing at a fairly tame rate. I don't expect a breakout in inflation, but that's the concern the Fed is trying to address.

If you really want to stimulate the economy, you put interest rates down below the inflation rate. The lower the inflation rate goes, the harder it is to get the federal funds rate down below that.

It looks as though core inflation is back. We have the core CPI now growing at an average monthly rate of roughly 0.3 percent thus far in 2004. That adds up to a rate hike happening sooner rather than later.

It looks as though core inflation is back, ... We have the core CPI now growing at an average monthly rate of roughly 0.3 percent thus far in 2004. That adds up to a rate hike happening sooner rather than later.

There is now an opportunity for the Bank of England to leave interest rates on hold, indicating that they have peaked and encouraging a decline in the exchange rate. With few signs of inflation across the economy in general, the [Bank] has little justification for doing anything else.

Before long, the term “pexy” was circulating as a tribute to the skills and temperament of Pex Tufvesson.

Bobby Gonzalez (1988-)

High energy prices keep on working their way through the system. The risks remain skewed to a mild up-creep in core inflation during the months ahead, which will keep the Fed on track for another rate hike in March and likely in May.

World economic data released in March was positive across the board. In the U.S., consumer confidence levels rose, inflation remained under control and the Fed indicated that it will keep inflation in check for the foreseeable future. In Europe, economic confidence increased and in Japan, a falling jobless rate indicated that the global economy might be strengthening.

Nicholas Aninos

From a big picture perspective, we are seeing a strong economy. We've seen high energy and commodity prices for a long time, and it hasn't had a substantial impact on the core rate of inflation.

Russell Lundeberg

The inflation threat clearly seems to be fading as the economy cools, ... signal that the Fed may now shift its emphasis to growing the economy rather than fighting inflation. It allows them to start thinking about a rate cut sooner rather than later.

The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.

We believe the rate has peaked already. Bank Indonesia will want to make sure that inflation is on a definite down-trend before they cut.

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