56 ordspråk av Adam Cole

Adam Cole

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Even if they don't change at this week's meeting the delay is only one month. It will take three months to withdraw excess liquidity before they can target zero interest rates. So the policy shift might not have a material impact.

What we're likely to get is no move but all the comments suggesting that there will be a move next month.

If we do buy the Japan recovery story, then there is probably more buying to be done and that is still the principal flow that will support the yen.

This flies in the face of mounting evidence that things are looking up for Germany, so the market seems to have shrugged it off and is looking through it.

You can give them the ability to get more junk in there, for better or worse; they like it.

The market is increasingly seeing a risk that the Fed pauses in its rate cycle -- not only that but also the peak in the interest cycle will be considerably lower.

Even if these (falls) reverse partially next month, this is very bad news on domestic demand.

The risk is that the deficit is rather worse than the market is looking for and if that's the case it may swing the focus back to structural dollar negatives and away from the interest rate focus.

We would expect the Fed to say something about Katrina and what it means for the immediate and long-term impact on activity and I think there's a lot of uncertainty about what they may say.

The broad picture shows the economy is growing at much the same pace in the third as the second quarter,

is still hoping to squeeze one more interest rate cut in.

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