24 ordspråk av Ashley Davies

Ashley Davies

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FOMC is the major focus for most of the major currencies this week.

A lot of negativity over the election was already priced in heading into the weekend. Euro-dollar should head higher this week as uncertainty diminishes and the shape of the new coalition government becomes clearer.

On the upside, we think that 112.50 could be a key level to watch, beyond which foreign investors may actively look to reduce their currency exposures.

A catalyst for a higher Australian dollar versus New Zealand's dollar could be relative monetary policy. We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift rates toward the end of the year and early next, while we expect New Zealand's economy to slow sharply next year.

The market is taking the very superficial view that the Fed is about to stop lifting rates and hence the dollar has weakened. I'm hesitant to pick this as the start of dollar weakness given that we've still got relatively illiquid trading conditions until next week.

We were short-dollar as our core view is that the Fed ended its tightening cycle on Jan. 31.

Given the market is looking for another rate hike at the end-March FOMC meeting, it seems likely that the U.S. dollar will stay firmer over the next few weeks until the Fed has clearly signaled its present rate-tightening cycle is over.

While the overall composition of growth was good, the headline number was perhaps not sufficiently strong to drive a sustained rally in the yen just yet.

While the continued strength of the yen does present a risk to stretched carry positions in high-yield currencies, our near-term expectation is that the yen is unlikely to extend its February gains.

With the Charles Schumer bill possibly being voted on by the end of this month, now may be a good time to allow greater flexibility.

For the Australian dollar it has been guilt by association.

Most important will be CPI, which is expected to grow year-on-year after stripping out both food and energy prices.

The yen's loss of upside momentum should also come as a relief to the high-yield currency bloc, with a sharp strengthening of the yen perhaps the biggest near-term risk for these currencies.

A strong ZEW survey, combined with rising EU labor costs for the fourth quarter, due on Friday, should help support ECB rate expectations and the currency.

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