18 ordspråk av Charlie Glavin

Charlie Glavin

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Channel checks reveal PC pricing pressures continue to ratchet up, with no indications of easing until mid-2001. We also believe that notebook demand, one of Intel's strongest drivers, has slowed, leaving Intel with less cushion relative to its overall exposure to the PC industry.

We believe that the PC environment hasn't improved, and visibility still remains quite poor. We expect this trend to continue through the first half of 2001. As a result, we expect pricing pressure to continue between Intel and AMD through Labor Day, as weak end demand and inventory overhang continue to push both companies down the slippery slope of pricing as the only means of leverage.

It's a little more bullish than I thought. I thought they would err on the side of being more conservative.

What's curious on this is that TI does not really need the cash right now to sell off the entire business.

I was floored by how bad it was. I don't think it's realistic to expect that this is going to work itself out by the second quarter. This is not an opportunity to buy on a weakness. This is a time to stay on the sidelines. Too many things have to go right. Intel has to reinvent itself very quickly, and you tend not to bet that a supertanker can turn on a dime.

We knew there were some constraints but not to the degree that it ended up manifesting itself in terms of revenues.

Margins and revenue were better than feared. Inventories did go up as we expected but they basically are not far off from where they were last year.

That would be an old dog learning new tricks. This is not a company or a management team that has been willing to admit they are making mistakes.

Our October downgrade was based on concerns that are manifesting themselves now, although current conditions are actually worse than we feared,

We were previously looking for revenue of $16.1 million and earnings per share of one cent. Weak demand for PCs and flat-panel displays were cited as the culprits.

However, we believe a bright spot for (Silicon Image) was its exposure to the consumer Japanese market, which was a pocket of strength, and has provided some cushion to the overall softened demand.

We are not changing our estimates today, but do expect to have to lower them again after the call -- both for the second and third quarter. Aggressive pricing and weak demand should mean mid-40 percent gross margins by the third quarter.

Though painful, Intel has completed a difficult 1999 transition year, and is now poised to demonstrate both its technology and manufacturing prowess - traits that enabled Intel's stock to double in prior cycles.

Going into Intel's third-quarter earnings report, we are becoming more cautious about how Intel is going to address some lingering issues.

Channel checks reveal PC pricing pressures continue to ratchet up, with no indications of easing until mid-2001, ... We also believe that notebook demand, one of Intel's strongest drivers, has slowed, leaving Intel with less cushion relative to its overall exposure to the PC industry.

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