54 ordspråk av Chris Rupkey

Chris Rupkey

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The market is on guard after Broaddus reminded us that the day of reckoning when the Fed raises rates is drawing nearer and the rebound in global stock markets is adding fuel to the fire.

The details of the GDP report may have given Treasuries a boost as the Fed's preferred inflation target, the core personal consumption expenditures index, was revised down to 1.7 percent from 2 percent for the first quarter.

It may come down to 59.5. This reading would not indicate a softer economy.

I'm really more concerned that the economy is taking up slack resources. That could be a little bit worrisome. I think the Fed continues to raise rates.

The markets were prepared for Greenspan to end his final meeting with the funds rate at neutral. What they got instead is the statement that rate hikes still 'may be needed.' This was not music to the market's ears.

This budget number is way out there; it was quite a shock.

It's not like the deficits back in the Reagan years because the economy is much larger now, so theoretically we can handle this amount of debt.

There was very strong demand -- off the charts -- from the indirect bid -- about 65 percent, bigger than the 55.6 percent at the 10-year note auction in November 2005.

Manufacturing production in the entire country is running flat-out at the moment.

This is consistent with the idea that slack resources have been taken up in the economy. There is considerable momentum and this is the sort of environment where inflation pressures can spill over and actually cause an increase in the rate of inflation, so it is a bit early for them (the Fed) to lay down their saber.

That leads to expectations that the Fed is still going with its series of rate hikes.

Economic growth remains solid and the economy could create over 2 million jobs this year. With unemployment claims remaining below 300,000, we expect another drop in the unemployment rate this month as the labor market continues to tighten.

The jobless claims number went up quite a bit, but the idea here is that because it stayed below 300,000 there's a good chance that the U.S. unemployment rate continues to fall.

The red ink was a one-month record in February, and the records are likely to continue to be broken this year. The spending side of the budget ledger remains out of control, despite some effort to constrain these expenditures.

The economy is creating over two million new jobs a year and these workers will need housing. Fears of a collapse in the housing market have been overblown.

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