16 ordspråk av Chris Shilakes

Chris Shilakes

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On calendar year 2000 revenues, this would yield a $387.9 billion market cap, or $70 per share. This is right in line with current trading levels.

We do not believe that investors should be buying MSFT on a breakup valuation criteria; a breakup, if it were to make it through an appeal, would be executed three or more years from today, which is an eternity in the Internet-centric world. The legal overhang appears to be lengthening, unfortunately, for Microsoft.

We believe the mainframe weakness will persist into the fall and possibly the December quarter, when G7 moves into full swing. In our view, this is more than a first-quarter issue, and we think both CA and BMC will likely remain depressed.

These stellar results should continue the upswing in e-commerce software stocks on a positive start to earnings season.

I'd be surprised if the strain was localized to Asia. Most of the survey work that we've done leading up into the end of the quarter also indicated that business was quite difficult in the U.S., and I wouldn't rule out a miss in Europe as well.

I think Oracle's fighting an uphill battle there.

We expect Oracle could appreciate at a more tempered rate over the intermediate term as fourth-quarter ... license revenues were muted by sluggish database growth, with strong earnings-per-share upside on continued margin expansion.

We are leaving our fiscal 2001 estimates and $87 12-month price objective for Microsoft materially unchanged, following fourth-quarter results that were largely devoid of the drama of the past two quarters. Nonetheless, 'caution' remains the operative word from Microsoft management, as continued choppy monthly unit demand from business PCs and a deliberate, gradual ramp from Windows 2000 platforms and related applications hinders near-term growth.

Our model forecasts applications license revenue growth of 55 percent and database license revenue growth of 18 percent. We expect Oracle to deliver applications growth consistent with our model and database growth in-line to slightly better than our projections.

Applications growth will again be a key focus for investors, although it contributes 25 percent of license revenue at present. We understand Oracle landed a couple of large deals in the quarter, perhaps $20 million in size, so there is some traction here.

We believe that Oracle shares, which closed Monday below $15, have limited downside and may move to near the $20 level over the next 12 to 18 months on a modestly improved earnings outlook and expanded [price-to-earnings] multiple, perhaps to the 38 to 40 range.

We believe Microsoft will be hurt by weakness in the consumer PC space, which represents roughly 10-15 percent of its business. As we have said, the shift to browser-based computing is slowing the need for upgrades, and perhaps the more sophisticated gaming platforms are removing the need for homes to have the latest high performance PC's. As a result, corporate PC's will have to pick up the slack in the next quarter.

With the stock trading at premium multiples and momentum investors exiting the stock, it may take some time ... to re-establish an upward trend.

MSFT could feel modest selling pressure in near-term following 'shock value' of DOJ's proposal that Microsoft be broken up into two separate companies.

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