24 ordspråk av Christopher Thornberg

Christopher Thornberg

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The markets are starting to cool, and everyone says we may be sliding down the backside of a hill.

That could smooth out the cycle, so to speak. But when you add it all up, it's unclear.

You got to think that this thing is going to end, eventually, one way or another. Prices have gotten to the point that, even with all the crazy financing out there, people still can't get into the market. It's just that over the top.

We've never seen this size of a housing bubble before, so in a sense we're in kind of a strange place right now.

We're in a housing-driven economy from top to bottom at this point in time.

Prices people pay today will be about the same in 2011, maybe 2012.

California in 2005 did better than we thought. But my feeling is the employment picture in 2006 is not going to be as good as 2005.

By the middle of the year, the cooling real estate market will take a bite out of employment growth everywhere. The question is, can other sectors of the economy pick up the slack? That is a big mystery right now.

It's an irrationally behaving market. It's very difficult to figure out where it is going to go.

Let's put it this way: We will be in a fragile economy.

Things are still hot, but the trend is clear. The only debate now is how hard a landing there will be and what will it mean for the general economy.

Building 200,000 new residences per year, not to mention the current interest in fixing up existing homes in order to spend new housing equity as fast as possible, will tend to drive this (employment).

It's such a contentious issue that nobody wants to deal with it.

It's business delayed, not business canceled. They make people aware of what's going on, but it doesn't cause any economic impact. It's a pain in the butt, but they get their point across.

The forecast for California is mediocre at best; at worst we are liable to dip into another recession, ... at least 50% if not more.

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