10 ordspråk av Clive McDonnell

Clive McDonnell

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Investors must be wondering whether the company will suffer from the winner's curse.

The last time (that) happened it was a contributing factor to the market crash of 1987. While we are not forecasting a similar event in this cycle it does provide food for thought for investors over Christmas.

I feel the rally has stalled amid disappointment about progress in the war, but Bush is right, the allies will be victorious, and that will provide more fuel for the market to advance from a purely sentiment point of view rather than on fundamentals.

With the European Central Bank joining the global trend for tighter monetary policy, the backdrop for equity markets is becoming more challenging.

The weakness in telecoms is a bit of a surprise.

That, in combination with average revenue per user (ARPU) numbers coming from Vodafone on April 25 is getting people worried.

Merger and acquisition activity in Europe has taken off over the first two months of this year. A total of 1,100 deals have been announced over this period.

In our view, the message that is emerging from buyers is that acquisition candidates are becoming too greedy. Prices are reaching unsustainable levels.

A key issue for investors is how high the bidding war for the LSE could go.

Using signaling theory, the conclusion has to be that managers of acquiring companies are using a higher proportion of cash relative to the last M&A cycle, as they believe that there is greater upside relative to downside risk in acquisitions.

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