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Darrel Good

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With the growing season coming to an end, most observers believe that the South American crop will be record large, with more uncertainty about the Argentine crop than the Brazilian crop. U.S. soybean oil stocks at the end of the most recent reporting month--January 2006--were estimated at 2.477 billion pounds, nearly 60 percent larger than stocks of a year ago. Stocks were at the highest level since August 2002.

At this juncture, it appears that U.S. corn consumption and demand prospects are stronger than prospects for U.S. soybeans.

Most analysts are on record with expectations of a decline in corn planting intentions and an increase in intentions for soybeans. The debate generally centers on the magnitude of the changes. Acreage of spring-planted crops, however, could deviate from intentions due to escalating spring wheat prices; potential for abandoned hard red winter wheat acreage to be replanted to other crops; changes, if any, in price relationships of spring-planted crops; and spring weather conditions.

The range of $0.505 is at the low end of historical experience. New highs in the spot cash price are certainly possible, particularly if weather concerns persist into the spring.

That level of use is historically consistent and provides evidence that the size of the 2005 harvest has been accurately estimated.

Those intentions are widespread geographically, with the exception of Minnesota and North Dakota, where intentions are unchanged and up 240,000 acres, respectively.

This is contrary to the view that the markets are inefficient and provides substantial opportunities for farmers to gain additional profits through marketing.

A minimum of 23 advisory programs were included in the analysis each year. A total of 41 programs were included for at least one year. The results for 1995-2003 were released in earlier reports, while results for the 2004 crop year are new.

The market will closely monitor planting progress, weather and weather forecasts, and weekly crop condition reports as they become available in order to judge 2006 production prospects. These factors will also provide producers with valuable information for gauging new crop pricing opportunities. The lesson of a year ago is that the weekly crop condition ratings are very valuable in judging U.S. average yield prospects.

The June Grain Stocks report will provide the next opportunity to calculate the rate of domestic corn use. Whether or not these projections are changed in the upcoming report, the market appears to anticipate an eventual increase. Stocks of corn at the end of the current marketing year may be 100 to 125 million bushels less than the current forecast of 2.3 billion bushels.

Markets will continue to react to other factors, but these reports will provide updated fundamental information.

The production intentions of hog producers will be of particular interest. The report will reveal whether producers' modest expansion plans have changed as a result of an extended period of relatively low feed prices.

Prices now appear to be settling into a trading range that may persist into the first of the calendar year.

South American soybean production prospects will be one of the more important market factors for the next three months.

The magnitude of the increase will have implications for the total area available to plant the spring-seeded crops such as corn and soybeans. The debate about how rising production costs will affect corn and soybean acreage decisions will continue into the spring of the year.

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