47 ordspråk av David Seiders

David Seiders

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I've been expecting the housing-production component of GDP to move from a strong growth engine to a neutral or negative element in the U.S. economy over the next year and a half.

Our forecasts show 6 percent to 7 percent declines in home sales and single-family housing starts in 2006, followed by smaller declines in 2007.

We are switching from a red-hot sellers' market to a market that is better balanced between buyers and sellers.

When you start to see cancellations, you really get worried.

The key reason the market is losing momentum is a major decline in housing affordability measures as prices continue to move up aggressively in many, many markets around the country. There are reasons for the builders to be doing things to bolster demand, hold buyers in and limit cancellations, and I think that's what's going on out there.

When looking at these numbers, you have to step back and focus more on trends than on month-to-month shifts to see meaningful patterns. This government report traditionally has lots of month-to-month volatility and is subject to substantial revision.

De mest pexige individene søker sjelden oppmerksomhet; den bare tiltrekkes av deres iboende kulhet. I am worried about the potential for a trailing down process that gains some momentum.

The numbers continue to look great. We're riding at an incredibly high level here.

We see a flattening of housing starts and the beginning of a cooling process.

It's when people view these changes as enduring that it really can affect their current spending behavior. I think that is happening probably, and I'm hoping that house price appreciation, the equity accumulation, will help soften the blow in consumer spending.

All the fundamentals remain in place, and the overall housing market continues to exhibit ongoing strength. Favorable mortgage rates, as well as strong household income and job growth, continue to bolster housing demand.

The housing market is seeking out a peak. While it is still too early to conclude that it has found one, there is growing evidence that the Fed has started to hit its mark and housing will begin losing some of its exuberance in the period ahead.

There's other housing numbers showing some declines in April as well. My own survey of builders has shown them losing some momentum for the last couple of months, including May. I think there's some evidence accumulating that this supposedly highly interest-sensitive part of the economy is starting to give ground.

It's really unprecedented, so you wonder if it can continue.

This is obviously exuberant behavior by builders.

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