82 ordspråk av David Thurtell

David Thurtell

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Peak demand for winter fuel in the northern hemisphere is what is going to be driving oil prices in the fourth-quarter.

Let's not forget that refining capacity in the U.S has been severely knocked out by the hurricanes, which hit the Gulf Coast in September.

Gulf production is really struggling. It's very unlikely that prices are going to come significantly under $60 in the next few months.

There are worries about demand going forward, but in the overall scheme of things, oil prices are still exceptionally high and are still vulnerable to supply hitches.

Everything's gone wrong in the oil market recently. If you wanted to paint the worst scenario picture, you couldn't do much better.

The crude stock build exceeded expectations and that was an excuse for some guys to take money off the table.

There was more relief in Asian trade today that Hurricane Wilma seems to be staying out of the way of Gulf facilities.

The hurricane season goes on till the end of November, so we're not out of the woods yet. But at least the chances of another hurricane forming are getting narrower and narrower.

Provided we don't get any disruptions to supply, it looks like prices could have short-term weakness. But if we get a much colder winter, it could send prices into the sixties range again.

Oil could ease back a bit today, though the hurricane season runs into November so we're not out of the woods yet. Asian demand is still pretty strong, so we're likely to see some buying if it goes much below $60.

In my view, prices had probably gone down too far, especially with peak demand winter season looming.

The worry is that if prices come off a bit, demand will rebound and we've still got to deal with the Northern Hemisphere winter.

All we need is a bit of a cold snap and suddenly it could easily push back up. We're still in that lull period where the summer driving season is over but we haven't hit peak winter demand.

Companies will still deal with the Chinese in the future. They are big players, and it's a brave player who refuses to deal with them. But companies and brokers may demand deals be confirmed all the way up the line.

It looks now as if Rita is not going to go through the main refinery region. Because all these plants have closed for precautionary reasons there have been problems with gasoline supply, which drove prices higher yesterday. Still, it looks as if there's not going to be so much damage to the bigger refining sites.

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