43 ordspråk av Edward Meir

Edward Meir

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This could, in effect, torpedo Russian and Chinese attempts to bring the Iranians around, and escalate the crisis once again.

New money may not enter the markets with the same vigor as has been the case in the past, especially if growth in the U.S. shows signs of slowing on the back of steadily rising interest rates.

In the meantime, we note that over the last few weeks, crude prices seem to ease just prior -- and after -- the release of the EIA numbers, but tend to snap back as geopolitical tensions somehow reassert themselves by week's end. We will see if this pattern plays out again this week.

Call it a tug of war, if you will, between bearish fundamentals on the one hand and intermittent geopolitical tensions on the other.

It remains to be seen whether this latest really will be upstaged by this week's EIA inventory reports. We think not; the markets are grappling with three simultaneous geopolitical hotspots right now, increasing the odds that at least one -- if not all three -- of these situations will override the potentially bearish consequence of an inventory increase.

The markets are picking up the scent of a compromise in the offing.

Although details have yet to emerge (prompting the White House to withhold comment) energy bulls are undoubtedly fretting.

It's hard to pinpoint what the reasons behind yesterday's price surge were.

More likely, it was continued nervousness about gasoline supplies and possible commercial buying on the back of healthy crack spreads.

The Nigerian problem, it seems, is transforming itself from a pesky, on-again, off-again, bottleneck to one with more staying power.

Prices could rally in the event of such an announcement [on Iran], but then come off shortly thereafter once participants realize that despite the consensus, hard work still lies ahead.

The prolonged drama probably explains why markets have not done much of anything in response to the news. Participants have perhaps concluded that things will take a lot longer to come to a head -- if they do at all.

No doubt, the relative easing in geopolitical tensions weighed on the markets yesterday. The Saudi incident, which was somewhat over-exaggerated on Friday, got discounted in calmer fashion for what it was -- a non-event in terms of supply, although a briefly unnerving one at that.

I am not sure where the bottom of this market is, but $4,650-a-tonne is very important. If that is broken, lots of selling orders will be triggered.

We cannot rule out further gains later in the week, particularly if (DOE) inventory numbers surprise.

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