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159 ordspråk av Fadel Gheit

Fadel Gheit

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The warm weather in the U.S. may be cutting demand for oil by 1 million barrels per day.

The damage from Hurricane Rita has been significantly underreported,

When gas prices rise then discretionary driving is curtailed, ... People will think twice. I was just down south and everybody I talked to was carpooling.

I think OPEC is showing tremendous strength in keeping oil prices firm, but they cannot push it much further, ... If they do, they will have to contend with things that they do not want in the long run, like possible economic troubles.

OPEC really cannot extend this period much longer, ... OPEC wants to do what I call a soft landing, by easing supply back into the market slowly and not causing any shocks.

Obviously, if they had cut production more, prices would have probably moved higher, and that would have curtailed economic growth, ... They want to make sure they will not be blamed for any economic slowdown in the second half of this year.

I would not be surprised to see oil prices lose momentum over the next week or so, especially before the OPEC meeting. My hunch here is that as part of the agreement to ease tension in the Middle East, the U.S. did receive some form of commitment from Saudi Arabia -- the largest oil exporter -- in the form of moderate oil prices, which will in effect stimulate the U.S. economy. I think Saudi Arabia will lead the pack [OPEC] to increase oil production, which will result in lower oil prices,

Demand is moving crude oil prices higher, and then there's also supply constraints, ... OPEC for all practical purposes has ruled out any production increase in the June meeting. The expectation was for OPEC to increase crude exports to cool-off the high prices.

The market is therefore focused on two things: No additional supplies coming from OPEC. The other factor is that we should be entering what is a high demand period for oil products with the start of the summer season,

There's hope that an increase in demand will bring down what is perceived to be current high level of inventory, ... But that has not happened. We haven't seen significant declines in inventory levels around the world. That has influenced OPEC's decision.

We could say we were releasing oil to drive prices down until they get to $25 a barrel, ... Then OPEC could say it'll cut production to keep prices up. It's a very delicate subject to tinker with.

We could suddenly have oversupply and weaker demand, and that will probably bring oil prices down on their own,

With the right investment environment and under the right government, Iraq could increase production by a million barrels a day every year for the next 10 years, ... It could be the largest oil exporter in the world, eclipsing Saudi Arabia.

Oil prices have been exceeding the most bullish forecasts for the past year and a half, and that's not driven by industry fundamentals, but largely by speculation and fears of a potential supply disruption,

Speculators pushed the prices beyond even the most bullish estimates, because they exaggerated (supply shortage fears), but now I think we see the party's over.

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