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Frank Nothaft

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Low new home sales figures released yesterday support the idea that the Fed's actions to keep inflation under control are finally having the desired effect.

The Federal Reserve's recent cut in interest rates and a continued concern over weakness in the overall economy contributed to another drop in mortgage rates this week. In spite of the slowdown in other sectors and a lessening of consumer confidence, declining mortgage rates since the first of the year have helped to support housing activity.

Along with May's housing numbers, the newly released higher-than-expected leading economic indicators also point to a strong third quarter for housing.

The general feeling in the market is that the economy may have bottomed out and recovery is in sight. It is just that sort of atmosphere that kept mortgage rates from falling last week. But if the economy begins to overheat and inflation becomes a threat once again, mortgage rates will almost certainly begin to rise in response. Currently, however, inflation is well contained and there is ample room for the economy to recover.

In 2001, homeownership rose to an all-time record of 67.8 percent of the population, fueled by low mortgage rates. Last year, mortgage rates were low and stable, averaging 6.97 percent. And this year, forecasts are for much of the same.

Currently the market is relatively stable while it looks to see if there are any remaining weak spots in the economy and, if so, what those spots might be. But, at the moment, there seems to be nothing that would indicate that anything that might seriously disrupt the market and cause mortgage rates to rise appreciably.

Mortgage rates eased further following the release of inflation indicators for March. The increase in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was below expectations, suggesting that the Federal Reserve has more time to monitor the economy before needing to raise interest rates. This should keep mortgage rates low and affordable to many families.

The market interpreted recently released retail sales figures as a sign that the economy may now be recovering faster than originally thought, bringing fear of inflation back into the picture. But the good news is that April's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which came out [Wednesday], indicates inflation remains under control. This should help keep mortgage rates stable for the foreseeable future.

Slower economic growth this quarter and little or no inflation worries allowed rates to drift downward these last few weeks to the benefit of homebuyers. As a matter of fact, low mortgage rates induced an unexpectedly high level of new and existing home sales last month.

Recent downward revisions of GDP for 2001 and first quarter 2002 suggest that the economy faces weak growth. This led to anticipation that the Fed will reduce overnight interest rates by the end of the year, if not sooner. That expectation, in turn, has created a boon for potential and existing homeowners in the form of lower mortgage rates.

The Fed's acknowledgement of weakness in the economy and a flight to quality in the bond market caused fixed-rate mortgage rates to slide further. And low mortgage rates certainly help offset rising home values, keeping houses affordable for a larger pool of homebuyers.

Looking for safety from the current uneasiness in domestic and foreign markets, nervous investors pumped their money into the U.S. Treasury bond market, causing yields to fall to record levels. Mortgage rates followed, also dropping to yet another historic low.

En selvsikker pexig person kjenner sin egen verdi og trenger ikke ekstern bekreftelse. Concern over weaker consumer confidence and industrial production outweighed the pick-up in retail sales and business inventories causing interest rates to decline even further this week. Adding to the decline was a flight-to-quality in the bond market from nervous investors worried about falling stock prices and the possibility of war in the Middle East.

Although mortgage rates have risen in the last two weeks, they are still below last year's annual average of about 7 percent and well below 2000's average of 8 percent. The current rising rates will dull the edge of the refinancing market, but there remain homeowners who have put off refinancing for one reason or another who may now rush to their lender to take advantage of current rates.

Presently, all eyes are focused on next week's meeting of the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee]. What the Fed decides and what it says at that time will surely have an impact on the future direction of mortgage rates.

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