52 ordspråk av Gerard Burg

Gerard Burg

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For the last two years everyone's been calling the peak, and everyone's been calling it down, but it just continues to go on.

What we've seen over the last couple of weeks with disruptions at copper mines has narrowed the opinion of whether the market is going to be in deficit or surplus. More and more people are thinking it's going to be in deficit this year.

Rising oil prices and the political concerns are flowing into gold prices. Investors are the real factor driving the gold prices.

Then there's Nigeria, also bubbling along, and no short-term view that things there will resolve themselves.

With this week's stock announcement likely to show a fresh decline in gasoline, it adds to market fears caused by the switch to greener fuels.

Concern about Iran never ceases to push prices. The mere mention of it sends prices higher.

The reality is that if there was any attack on Iran, there would certainly be a major disruption to supplies.

I don't see any rapid resolution in Nigeria, it's a political situation.

It's the constant talk of attacks and military action that are heightening tensions again and helping push up prices. We should see a bit of a rebound in Chinese consumption this year. The market is going to remain very tight.

You've got to wonder, where would it go? There's no spare refining capacity to refine it and we're starting to run out of places to store it. Crude stocks are swelled and there's little demand for that additional supply.

The big positive there was that refinery utilization appears to be on the rise now. The main one coming back on line was the BP Texas City refinery, so with that one coming back we should see further increases over the next few weeks.

The key factor is Iran. The tension between Iran and the United States has increased a bit more, while Nigeria presents a consistent problem.

Natural gas production in the U.S is still not back up to 100 percent, and gas is the most commonly used heating fuel in the U.S,

While we continue to assess the damage from Katrina, the threat to production of new storms is attracting everybody's attention and could drive prices right back up.

We're now in wait-and-see mode. It could be weeks before we know the full extent (of damage), but given how easily $70 was reached, it's not out of the question that $80 could be the next barrier if there's long-term damage.

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