21 ordspråk av Guy Moszkowski

Guy Moszkowski

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Strategically, it's been very, very difficult for PaineWebber to gain or maintain share in anything other than its main retail business, ... What they probably hope is by getting together with a more global firm that they can turn that around.

Results were extremely strong in almost every category, with particular strength in fixed income and equity trading, each producing well over $400 million more than we had forecast in revenue, for a total trading 'surprise' of $1BB in revenue,

Unlike in the past, it can't acquire its way out of the growth slowdown.

Strategically, it's been very, very difficult for PaineWebber to gain or maintain share in anything other than its main retail business. What they probably hope is by getting together with a more global firm that they can turn that around.

In terms of investment banking, in terms of capital markets, in terms of investment management, really everything was very positive. Their outlook statement was also quite positive: their backlogs are up compared to where they were last year and they expect to be able to continue to pick up market share.

We've anticipated some of that. There is going to be some uncertainty again surrounding when the equity underwriting calendar's going to look better and all the other businesses.

Asset management remains the highest quality revenue stream and the highest return-on-equity revenue stream in the financial-services business.

To think they're immune would be very imprudent, and I'm sure they'd be the first to agree with me on that. But from everything I can infer, the second quarter is starting out just as strong as the first, and they manage their risk very well. Earnings growth could contract quite a bit if things get bad, but they're well protected from severe loss in most any market environment.

Trends look very strong for fixed income, with investment grade issuance up strongly and high yield issuance levels performing well. Equity underwriting has been more mixed in the first quarter, but remains very strong, especially in the U.S., and backlogs have been building.

Mergers and acquisitions have been very strong and produced a lot of ancillary financing.

They are getting one of the prime companies in both [Nasdaq market marking and securities clearing] for a multiple that we estimate at not more than 14 times earnings, so we think this is a very good deal for them.

It basically allows them to internally cross more of their Nasdaq volume. It takes the number of stocks that they can make markets in on the Nasdaq up over 6,000 from 300 or so stocks they do now.

Merrill, relative to its historical valuations at this stage of the cycle, is quite cheap. And (the company) will of course enjoy some recovery probably over the next few weeks as it has in the last week, as worries about the interest rate environment subside.

Warburg has been taken by surprise by the strength of Morgan Stanley, Merrill and Goldman in M&A underwriting in Europe.

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