286 ordspråk av Hugh Johnson

Hugh Johnson

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The markets are moving to more reasonably reflect expectations for what lies ahead in 2005.

The market is asking the question, given oil prices, given rates, given China's economy and other things, what does it look like for the economy and corporate profits in the fourth quarter and in 2005? The message we got last week was that it's probably not going to be as great as everybody once expected, but it will still be just fine.

It's foolish to jump the gun. The thing to do is wait until you actually see large caps outperform, because if you don't wait you can be a year early .

When you say the stock market is overvalued, you imply that the stock market is going down. But there is a touch of lunacy in every bull market -- stocks can become even more overvalued. A rational investment policy in an irrational world is suicide.

We're all watching the same stuff. Like sheep.

I think what the half-point cut showed was that the Fed for the first time appears to be taking the situation very seriously. I think investors are also still mulling the move and thinking what is it the Fed knows that they don't know. Could it be worries about a double-dip and deflation? It's this uncertainty, among other factors, that's the reason why we're down today.

Investors are clearly worried about a double-dip.

[Which summer?] The most exciting period in U.S. stock market history was the summer of 1929, ... It was the summer, and nobody went on vacation. Many books have been written about how exciting it was.

It's uncharacteristic of him to make big-picture investments, ... This whole area -- zero coupons, silver -- when he seems to depart from big companies, he feels uncomfortable, it's not his place?he's sort of saying to himself, 'this is not my cup of tea.'

Even though they've bought some stocks [this time], they haven't come storming back like they did last October.

The decline will divert capital flows away from U.S. investments.

[Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany, suggested that fear -- as much as fundamentals -- is driving the market to levels once considered out of reach.] It's a vicious circle, ... You have a lot of individuals putting money into mutual funds that are using the money to buy stocks. You're simply afraid to be out of the market. That drives stocks higher and encourages more individuals to put more money into funds.

[Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany, suggested that fear is now driving a segment of the market.] It's a vicious circle, ... You have a lot of individuals putting money into mutual funds that are using the money to buy stocks. You're simply afraid to be out of the market. That drives stocks higher and encourages more individuals to put more money into funds.

This thing that bothers me is you get into markets like this and they can go from being overvalued to extremely overvalued,

Individuals are buying stock with the idea that it will become even more overvalued. That's a sign of speculation.

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