13 ordspråk av Jim Waggoner

Jim Waggoner

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It's been a more typical September than I expected. Earnings preannouncements have been disappointing, and surprisingly so, and economic news has been disappointing, and surprisingly so. I expected September to be on the strong side because the year overall has been so bad.

We're not recommending purchase of it, but I do think that the worst is probably behind. I do think that there is probably a bounce due in the stock. It's Microsoft's turn at the plate, if you will. I think the actions really will start to play in their favor. I think a stock buyback program begins within the next six-to-eight weeks. I think that's one line of defense that the company has for the stock.

The market was sensitive to any good news and it got a double whammy of it yesterday [Tuesday].

The market wanted to go higher and that's a very positive sign. If nothing else, it's a reversal in trend.

We're setting ourselves up for some kind of rally.

We're not recommending the purchase of it, but I do think the worse is probably behind it. I do think there is probably a bounce due in the stock.

I think fundamentally we have a company that's going through a transition. Windows 2000 did not prove or has not yet proved to be the panacea for all of the growth problems that the company had hoped for, so I think that the jury is still out, literally, on that question.

I think many of the other tech stocks have begun to [benefit]. Fundamentally, since the market is moving away from desktop computing, a lot of the stocks, a lot of the companies have begun already to benefit fundamentally. But the market seems still to be tied to Microsoft as a stock, and slowly but surely I think we're going to unplug, detach from that, and technology stocks will be looked at independently. Microsoft will slowly lose its status as bellwether of technology.

We initiated coverage and with a buy recommendation quite recently, the other day, on Palm ( PALM : Research , Estimates ). The hand-held device market is the hottest area for Christmas along with digital cameras and a few other areas. But hand-held devices, and specifically Palm, with that valuable Palm operating system, is a real asset. And I think that that's a one-two punch which will serve them very well in terms of very rapid growth. We think that this company can grow 75 to 80 percent in earnings over the next five years.

There's not a lot else going on, so something like Cisco takes on added importance. It's important, not so much for the numbers, but for the nuance.

The percentages say that the day after Christmas, the market goes up. Eighty percent of the time, stocks rise.

One would expect a little bit of a bounce back.

I think that what's happened this week is not as significant as the basic mechanics of the market, which are working in your favor, so let them do it.

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