27 ordspråk av John Kyriakopoulos

John Kyriakopoulos

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As such, currency moves are being exaggerated as small lumpy flows meet low liquidity.

Higher metals prices and poor US dollar sentiment are offsetting a declining yield advantage for the Aussie, but we still see it expensive north of $0.7500.

It will be a tough first half of the year for the U.S. dollar with the Fed peaking with rates. The euro will do okay in the first half on expectations the ECB will tighten rates.

The news on the Australian economy has been far from upbeat. A benign consumer price index report will make the likelihood of another RBA rate hike disappear completely and this will potentially weigh on the Australian dollar.

There are clearly upside risks around the consensus expectations for non-farm payrolls. As such, we would not be short the U.S. dollar over the next 24 hours.

A report that Nippon Life may shift away from U.S. dollar bonds has also supported yen buying.

The outlook for the Fed policy is clearly data dependent. I cannot see much downward correction to the U.S. dollar over the near term being driven by the data.

Perceptions that Japanese interest rates would not be rising much appeared to reverse earlier concerns about an end to carry trades, which supported the Australian dollar.

The Australian dollar is being hurt by the rise in global bond yields, driven by expectations all three major central banks will be raising interest rates this year. This is hurting commodities.

We're back to 5 percent expectations and the dollar is recovering from its sharp slide of last week. The dollar has a little further to go.

It plays to the risks of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting rates earlier than its current track suggests.

The Fed is still going to 5 percent and therefore Australia's yield advantage will continue to narrow.

While commodity prices have been rising Australia's interest rate spread has been narrowing.

It's more of the same, with the perception that carry trades are being unwound, and that Japanese bond yields rose further today probably added to that trend.

There is typically a bounce in such purchases and if this proves subdued this year, many investors will conclude that a stronger Japanese economy and rising bond yields has moderated Japanese investor appetite for foreign assets. This scenario would see the yen a lot firmer.

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