19 ordspråk av Kathleen Camilli

Kathleen Camilli

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Consumer confidence numbers will most likely plummet in September.

The events of this week make a more pronounced v-shape in the downturn. While obviously this will have a very short-term negative impact on us, investors should be focused on the next six-to-nine months.

The stock market could be on track for a recovery. The stock market is one of the key leading economic indicators and it tends to turn up about six months before the official end of recession. So, if in fact it stays up now, it would be signaling that the recession could be over sometime next June.

Every Fed chairman has been greeted with a trial by fire.

It may not be so bullish for the stock market, because we are a consuming nation.

It's a pretty big drop. It shows that we didn't have a large flow of imports and we know anecdotally that those cheaper imports, especially for the Christmas season, are coming.

This does imply we'll see higher CPI inflation. The bond yield will move up as long we continue to see greater-than-expected data.

Housing continues to remain the anomaly in this downturn, [with] continued strength coming presumably from the impact of a low unemployment rate, good income growth and historically high levels of home affordability.

He is obviously establishing his credentials as an inflation hawk, which is of course what the global financial markets want to hear.

I think the greater risk is that higher energy prices will cause consumers to pull back, slowing overall economic growth.

It's really amazing. Our economy is growing at over 4 percent real growth and in the midst of that we have barely any inflation. Quite unprecedented.

The Fed is doing what it has to do, talking a tough line. It still remains to be seen when the upward pressure on wages will trickle up to inflation. Right now, the average American consumer has been untouched, unscathed by the events in Asia.

I do think that a rate cut is coming, more likely toward the end of the year when we see some of the economic data.

Put in perspective, these levels are as high as they were in the late 1960s, so the fact that we've come off a little bit is most likely the reflection of anticipation of higher interest rates.

Keep in mind that export orders are a big part of this and since Asia has turned, so has manufacturing turned.

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