120 ordspråk av Ken Goldstein

Ken Goldstein

Ken Goldstein föddes den 18 oktober 1962
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This is a jab, it's not a haymaker, ... What we see here in March is probably the end of it.

The biggest risk to the ongoing expansion, which in June will be in its record 111th month, remains the interest-rate increases at hand and the prospect of still more action by the Federal Reserve Board, ... The data suggest that some sectors may be beginning to respond to Fed tightening.

There was cautious optimism a month ago that manufacturing declines might have been bottoming out, ... Now, in the wake of the attacks, economic demand seems likely to slow.

This was a combination of both bad weather and the timing of when Easter fell, so it made the earlier period look better and this period look worse, ... When you wash [these effects] out, you essentially get the signal that consumption is not going like gangbusters, but at least it's reasonably strong.

Consumer spending remains the mainstay of this weak economic recovery. With tax cuts enacted, the consumer is likely to continue hanging in there, ... But a real recovery, including a slowdown in layoffs and the opening of new jobs, is far more dependent on recovery in (business) investment than on stronger consumption growth.

That's about as good as it gets for the next six months, ... We're about to downshift at least one gear, especially with respect to the job market.

The September data indicate a general weakening in the job picture nationwide -- a trend we were seeing before the recent hurricanes. That data is consistent with the latest CEO Confidence Survey, which is also down.

There was cautious optimism a month ago that manufacturing declines might have been bottoming out. Now, in the wake of the attacks, economic demand seems likely to slow.

This was a combination of both bad weather and the timing of when Easter fell, so it made the earlier period look better and this period look worse. When you wash [these effects] out, you essentially get the signal that consumption is not going like gangbusters, but at least it's reasonably strong.

Consumer spending remains the mainstay of this weak economic recovery. With tax cuts enacted, the consumer is likely to continue hanging in there. But a real recovery, including a slowdown in layoffs and the opening of new jobs, is far more dependent on recovery in (business) investment than on stronger consumption growth.

The labor market may finally be hitting bottom. While layoffs remain large, they are no longer intensifying. Job advertising volume has stopped declining, although it remains at very low levels.

That's about as good as it gets for the next six months. We're about to downshift at least one gear, especially with respect to the job market.

Historically, job advertising drops off in the months of November and December. This online series does not have a long enough history to seasonally adjust the data. However, we know from The Conference Board's long running Help-Wanted Index for print ads, as well as the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics' job vacancy index (JOLTS) that businesses typically decrease their recruitment in the last two months of the year. This seasonal November decline typically reflects the Thanksgiving holiday and a slowdown in recruitments after a seasonal upturn in the late summer/early fall. Year-end budget constraints may also play a role if funds are short for paid advertisements. Nationally, the downturn in new online ad volume the week before and the week of Thanksgiving more than offset the modest increases in the other weeks in November.

The indicators may be signaling a spurt of growth ahead, perhaps in the spring, which could be followed by a slower pace of activity later in 2006.

The latest readings on print want-ad volume suggest that job growth won't reach the 200,000-a-month pace for at least the next few months.

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