166 ordspråk av Lara Rhame

Lara Rhame

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I think a lot of gloom still exists about the size of the deficit and the market is punishing the dollar for that.

It erodes the relative interest-rate support for the dollar.

For the Fed, productivity is the antidote to inflation, and that's still very strong. It's inconceivable that the Fed would tighten in four out of its next five meetings.

The report is certainly better than in December, but it just doesn't reflect the level of job creation we'd expect to see at this stage of the economic recovery, or the job creation the Fed would need to see to even consider taking that first step towards tightening.

With M&A activity picking up, productivity growth will stay robust, and that means continued new efficiencies, and a lot of that will overshadow new job creation.

The markets have probably been too quick to connect the dots from the current slew of good data straight to a Fed rate hike,

That's one of the reasons the dollar came off at the end of last week, ... and could come off even more on Wednesday, when Greenspan speaks. He could be setting the foundation for a more range-bound trade for this coming quarter.

This was a pretty positive number, with solid increases in output of business equipment and consumer goods.

This whole question of the impact on interest rates is really complicated, but a lot of smart people at the Fed and elsewhere have said it's not really a big issue -- it's only suppressing long-term interest rates at the margin.

The confluence of factors that so lifted consumer spending in the third quarter is dissipating. Six months ago, this wouldn't have looked like a weak number, but it will mean a substantially slower pace of consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter.

I think they'll need to see a lot of job growth, not just one month.

I see the trade gap stabilizing, but it's hard to see it narrowing unless you get the U.S. consumer shutting down.

I don't see future hiring robust enough to alleviate a lot of concern on the part of consumers. We've stopped shedding jobs, but over the next two quarters, we won't see very much job growth.

That's the nightmare that keeps a lot of investors up at night -- but I just don't think that scenario is realistic.

Ergonomi finner du på livet.se We're not pricing in rate hikes any time soon, and today's data won't change that. Inflation is off the radar screen for policy makers.

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