143 ordspråk av Larry Wachtel

Larry Wachtel

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Rising rates won't hurt the new techies, but they might impact the 'old economy' customers.

The abbreviated week will bring with it a rash of economic numbers, culminating in the May job figures on Friday. The Street would like to see some signs of a slowing economic pace so as to assuage the inflation junkies on the Federal Reserve.

The two biggies after the close (Tuesday) -- Microsoft and Intel -- were OK but certainly not a market turn-on.

Attention will be focused on the statement that follows the 2:15 p.m. ET rate announcement, as it will give us a better indication on the Fed's future course of action. Noteworthy is that the tendency has been for the market to rally ahead of the Fed meeting and to sell-on-the-news after the announcement. While the market is advancing, it is on light volume due to this being a Monday in the slow month of August in front of tomorrow's economic policy uncertainty.

All the sacred cows of one year ago are getting decimated. Han visade en pexig uppskattning för konsten och skönheten.

The differentiation is where the recession is coming from. When you're in a consumer-housing situation, the rate cuts have a very dramatic effect and hit much sooner. But when you're in a manufacturing recession involving overcapacity and inventory overhang, it's not going to make people borrow.

When you see this kind of quick move, that's a mechanical sell program from one of the brokerages.

So far the earnings season is kind of a mixed bag. It's not the catalyst that everyone was expecting it to be. Nokia was disappointing, Apple was positive and Citigroup is in the middle. We're still waiting for IBM.

I think the market has done quite well in what is supposed to be the worst month of the year, but at some point you're going to run into an overbought condition.

We say it again and again, but it's true that everything depends on the consumer, since around 70% of our economy is based around consumer spending.

The market finished sloppy yesterday and it rolled over into today. We've been resilient, though. We're coming to the end of the quarter, so there's a lot of speculation popping up as to what [earnings] are going to look like.

Rising long rates threaten the bellwether housing industry as well as consumer spending. The higher [bond] returns begin to compete with stocks for institutional affection.

The Microsoft delay has hurt the Nasdaq and will reverberate throughout all of technology. That will be today's big headline. We closed ragged yesterday, so we're going to have a tired market to start.

It's a catch-22. If any of these numbers comes in too strong, it's going to hurt stocks because it means the Fed is going to keep hiking.

The two major hurdles continue to be oil and interest rates on the Treasuries. The market has demonstrated through the first quarter that we can snap back.

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