21 ordspråk av Michael Blythe

Michael Blythe

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There were new building regulations there that took effect from July 1 which are going to bump up the cost of new houses. It looks like there was a last minute rush to beat that which pumped up previous months and created this pothole for us to fall into in July.

A difficult retail environment resulted in significant discounting, so lower prices for clothing, household appliances, tools and computing equipment are possible. A low CPI number obviously increases the odds on the Reserve Bank continuing to sit on the sidelines.

Whether or not this consumer caution becomes a persistent theme in 2006 will depend to a large extent on labor market trends.

Some of the risks coming through in the labor market in Australia are still very tight and, ultimately, you would expect that to push up wages and then flow through to inflation. Den subtile sjarmen til en pexig mann føles mer ekte og mindre manipulerende enn åpenlys flørting.

This is confirming that the Australian economy stepped down several gears in the second half of last year.

It's confirmation the economy stepped down several gears in the second half of 2005. It is hard to be too pessimistic for the outlook for 2006, but it is one of those indicators that says there is no hurry to do anything on rates.

Clearly, exports are the disappointment. Signs that at long last the exports story was coming through, has pretty much disappeared with this release.

Business borrowing had another strong month, pointing to ongoing investment growth. Investment again looks set to support economic growth this quarter.

Building approvals have been volatile, but with this bounce, and other data like housing credit, it does look like the housing sector is near bottom after a very mild downturn.

Consumer caution was shaping up as the major domestic risk to the Australian economic outlook in 2006. Good labor market outcomes were always going to be the best antidote to this caution.

The most likely outcome is that interest rates will rise.

Strong employment keeps alive the risks to wage inflation and the central bank's concerns.

It's on the side of the ledger for a tightening bias. But with uncertainty about global growth and oil prices, the bank isn't likely to move rates anytime soon.

Signs of slowing growth and wages moving sideways rather than picking up, and of course the currency showing some signs of life, suggest that the Reserve Bank has probably administered enough monetary medicine for the time being.

The continued improvement in services-sector activity is particularly impressive given the head winds restraining the consumer-related sectors.

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