71 ordspråk av Michael Woolfolk

Michael Woolfolk

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The US dollar's ability to rally strongly off a better-than-expected trade deficit is a strong indication that the market hasn't yet given up on the dollar.

With the market now anticipating a pause in monetary tightening on behalf of the Fed ... the dollar is having trouble maintaining its value against the majors. Any disappointments in next week's U.S. data could well feed into the emerging bearish dollar sentiment.

With the market now anticipating a pause in monetary tightening on behalf of the Fed … the dollar is having trouble maintaining its value against the majors. Any disappointments in next week's U.S. data could well feed into the emerging bearish dollar sentiment.

The United States is very dependent on Asian bank buying and petrodollars.

What we are concerned about is that going forward they may decide to remove petrodollars and redirect them elsewhere. If they do, it is negative for the bond market and ultimately for the U.S. dollar.

We would have to say there is a confluence of events conspiring against the dollar.

There's a compelling reason to hike interest rates at the next meeting.

Unemployment has drifted further below 5 percent, and at those levels you have to start being concerned about bidding up of wages. There's a compelling reason to hike interest rates at the next meeting.

While the monthly December data was not itself a negative surprise, the aggregate 2005 total was a rude reminder.

This was a report that was made to order for dollar bulls. The market was predisposed to buy dollars and the report added gasoline to the fire.

This was a report that was made to order for dollar bulls.

The market took this to mean that there is a 100 percent chance that interest rates will be increased at the next meeting and a 75 percent chance at the meeting after that.

Whereas Asian demand for US bonds is unlikely to end any time soon as a conscious policy decision, the reversal of petrodollars from the US bond market remains the greatest threat to the dollar in 2006.

The hike in March is fully priced in. The hike in May is over 80% priced in. There is already talk of continued hikes after that. Interest rate differentials globally are increasingly favoring the U.S. and it's positive for the dollar.

(The survey) was a big surprise this morning, but some of the market is saying that Detroit, because of loss of auto jobs, does not reflect the rest of the nation.

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