66 ordspråk av Nariman Behravesh

Nariman Behravesh

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The good news for the U.S. is that growth has diversified. We aren't just relying on the consumer and housing.

The big uncertainty is how much of a hit the housing marketing will take. Is it going to be a hard landing or a soft landing? I worry about that much more than I worry about high fuel prices right now.

When it is up around 6%, it feels a lot worse.

The industrial production numbers in the next two months will look pretty awful as the full impact on the hurricane-related shutdowns show up in the data.

The industrial production numbers in the next two months will look pretty awful as the full impact of the hurricane-related shutdowns shows up in the data.

We are just starting to see the impact of Katrina. We are going to see awful inflation numbers, awful employment numbers and awful industrial production numbers for a few months.

We will take a hit to growth but we won't fall into a recession.

Natural gas prices are going to go through the roof in the next couple of months, and that is going to hurt a lot of families.

The typical pattern with a natural disaster like this is that the regional economy gets clobbered but you can barely see it in the national statistics. This time it is very different because of the impact on the energy infrastructure.

There is no question that the deficit this year will be worse than last year. A number of the improvements in May were temporary.

[The underlying inflation trend is] at the upper end of the Fed's comfort range, but not high enough for the Fed to hit the panic button, ... The big question still is: when will the Fed stop raising rates? . . . The Fed will probably stop in November, when the Fed funds rate is at 4 percent.

Because the economy is strong and job growth is strong, the consumer has not felt much pain, but that is likely to change in the next few months, ... I think we are headed for a period of economic weakness mostly related to the oil situation.

Even before the hurricane hit, rising energy prices were having a dampening effect on the economy,

The higher energy costs will put a squeeze on both businesses and households. They're spending so much on energy - the households on gasoline, the airlines on jet fuel, for example - that they'll have to curtail elsewhere.

There's not a lot of relief in sight. I would not be surprised to see the monthly deficit go above $60 billion by fall, and stay there.

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