11 ordspråk av Norihisa Takao

Norihisa Takao

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The drop in stocks is taking the weight off bonds. The decline of the past couple of months has been overdone.

Speculation of a policy shift grew over time and pushed up bond yields. The economic recovery was strong and the stock rally continued, keeping an upward bias on yields.

The central bank won't raise rates until the year starting April 2007.

Bonds are reacting to the drop in stocks. The machinery orders report is another plus.

We've already anticipated the increase in consumer prices. It is not a reason to sell bonds any more.

Yields are close to their highs, and so bonds look attractive. Yields already reflect speculation that an end to the policy will come in the second quarter of next year at the earliest. Any signs of a weak economy or government opposition to changing policy may trim those bets.

Bond yields will have a bias to rise toward the end of the year. Concerns about oil and the hurricane have eased, spurring some selling in bonds.

Buying of bonds gained momentum after the sudden drop in the Nikkei. Some investors are saying consumer prices won't rise as much as the central bank expects.

The fourth month of gains in core prices could certainly push the central bank a step further toward raising interest rates. Debt maturing in five-years or less will remain weak.

Some traders are locking in profits from their bets on a reduction in the yield difference. They may be thinking that the market has already priced in the likely level of Bank of Japan rate increases this year.

People are snapping up medium-term debt on bets the BOJ will take its time raising rates after a shift in policy.

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