84 ordspråk av Ram Kolluri

Ram Kolluri

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Considering the carnage that is going on in Iraq and the fact that the Fed is set to raise rates next week, we should be at the lower end of this trading range, but we're not.

We have so many negatives, so why is this market still staying where it is? ... My contention is that earnings momentum will overcome any of these obstacles we're seeing.

Oil prices and interest rates are the twin problems right now, ... People are looking at these prices and saying 'how is this going to trickle down through the economy?'

It's not the end of the run. The market needs a breather, and that's what the selling is about.

I'm somewhat in the cautious camp. The rally may continue, but this is exactly how we felt in 1999 and 2000 before we started questioning earnings. I feel there is going to be a reality check somewhere.

The stock market is on one side saying earnings and the economy are going to improve, while the bond market and the Fed and the recent economic data are on the other, saying:

Basically we're trading sideways until there's an indication of corporate spending and of earnings picking up. Institutional investors are buying and selling, but the individual investor is still on the sidelines.

Earnings estimates are really, really weak -- and the focus really is earnings. In October, a rosy picture was painted for 2003. Now people are saying the second half will be good. I'm very, very leery about the economic condition. Come July, August, I'm afraid the earnings estimates will be cut.

No one wants to stick their neck out. There's nervousness about Iraq, oil prices are up and the dollar isn't, and the earnings season is mostly over with and it was just mixed.

If there's military action, it's going to have to be soon. The heat is oppressive come March, April, May in that part of the world. In the desert it can reach 120 degrees. So I have a feeling something will happen in February.

Most of the bad news and pre-announcements are out of the way. What we really need now is guidance that says [revenue] growth is on the way. Corporations have done everything they can to cut costs, now we need to see that growth.

There is the possibility that some of these big companies have been biding their time and could spring a few positive surprises towards the end of the quarter.

We're so stretched out, so oversold at this point, that we have no idea what a potential snap back could be. This is like a hot, dry forest and one good spark is all we need for it to really take off.

The only big curve ball I see through the end of the year will be the somewhat lackluster Christmas sales that retailers are looking for. Unfortunately, the impact of higher heating bills on sales is going to be felt.

Most of my clients are conservative investors who are looking for low volatility and tax-advantaged investing.

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