67 ordspråk av Steve Barrow

Steve Barrow

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We believe the euro could slide to 85 cents and things could get a lot worse, with the Danish referendum going against joining the euro.

The ECB needs to raise interest rates to stop a big slide in the euro. We doubt the German economy will slow down as is predicted.

There may be some help for the euro if the European Central Bank raises interest rates.

Our sights remain on a plunge to 80 cents. If Duisenberg's most recent comments are correct, it looks as if intervention is stumbling already.

Worse still, there are ominous signals from the U.S. that the ECB might not have a willing ally in the Republican Party, if the GOP gets its feet under the desk at the Oval office on Nov. 7. Bush's chief economic advisor Lawrence Lindsey suggested that the U.S. was wrong to intervene on behalf of the euro.

We still hold firm to the belief that the euro will fall to 80 cents. At that level the ECB is most likely to intervene.

People are clutching at straws if they think that the G20 will offer some kind of supportive comment for the euro. There are other countries at the G20 that are aggrieved at the weakness of their currency against the dollar -- Australia for one.

There is speculation in the market that a Dutch company is selling euros.

History has shown currency intervention is a long drawn-out battle. It will take weeks, if not months, with or without the U.S., to boost the euro. It'll take a miracle.

A combination of a Bush victory, Republican majority in the House and Senate, together with benign neglect of the dollar could send euro/dollar down into the 70-cent to 75-cent range.

They have talked in slightly more dovish terms [about a rate hike] recently, and growth data have slackened off.

Fifty basis points is most likely; that's factored into the markets already.

Markets are nervous about the outlook for euro entry. The market is pricing in the possibility of a remote chance of entry into the euro in the next parliament.

I'm still skeptical whether we will see a hike from the ECB this year. The fact the ECB won't deliver on rate hikes this year will probably pull the euro back.

The Fed has been on 'autopilot' with its monetary tightening so that even bouts of weaker data, such as we saw after hurricane Katrina, failed to divert the Fed off course. But now, following the minutes of the December meeting, it is clear that policy will become more data dependent.

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