17 ordspråk av Tim Condon

Tim Condon

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Political noise has gone up ahead of the 20th anniversary of People Power I on Feb. 25.

We believe the BSP was selling dollars to blunt peso weakness.

Financial assets clawed back some of their recent losses as President Arroyo appeared to have weathered the latest storm.

This is a very political year in the U.S. and China is an easy target. It would take a massive swing to satisfy U.S. politicians. It's a failure of economic thinking, but politics is politics.

The January-February surplus was $1.3 billion wider year-on-year, which highlights the pressure on the central bank as it attempts to dissipate some of the upward pressure.

Looks like a people plan as opposed to a business plan. The emphasis seems to be improving peoples lives by improving social infrastructure. I don't know if there are enough goodies to have an impact on financial markets although if the whole country feels better it would be good for markets.

The central bank obviously would like to see two-way movement. That to a large extent depends on what happens with policies. For example, the relaxation of restrictions on capital flows takes away some of the upward pressure on the yuan.

There were no exports (growth) in 2001 either and we expect that pattern to continue in 2003,

China's trade surplus has become a structural feature of the economy, so while political pressure may grow, the economic argument for a stronger yuan is weak,

Chinese producers will remain competitive in a wide range of manufactured products for some time.

If the US dollar remains firm, then flows looking for an appreciation of the yuan will remain at their 2005 levels or lower and we're forecasting a more or less unchanged trade surplus.

Both were in recession last year and the recoveries there have not been particularly strong yet,

There's been very strong growth balanced between domestic demand and exports and falling inflation - a very satisfactory outcome from the point of view, I would suspect, of the policy-maker.

Strong new orders is a good sign for the region. The improving job situation means wage increases and that should support stronger consumption.

The rating agency actions have reinforced a message to investors that fiscal consolidation in both countries is a trend and will drive asset prices higher. So markets are reacting to this.

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