58 ordspråk av Wayne Ayers

Wayne Ayers

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The Fed's number one concern is the lack of any meaningful job creation in this recovery.

We'll probably have a moderate-paced recovery. I couldn't agree more with the Greenspan's forecasts that it would be a sub-par recovery.

This is corroborative evidence that the economy is white-hot. For this late in the cycle, it's unprecedented, but we will probably see growth back off a bit in the first quarter.

If you listen to the pronouncements of about 6 or 7 Fed presidents and governors over the past week they are all saying the slowdown is real, but don't get too excited because inflationary pressures are still there. There is the implication that these numbers may be a little fluky.

If you look around and you'd hardly notice any kind of slackening in the labor market. I find it strange that we had one of the biggest declines in employment in almost two years and no one noticed, and I'm sure they're thinking the same way over there at the Fed.

From the Fed's point of view we've had head-fakes before -- I think they want to see a more stable environment for financial markets before they call it a day. I don't expect that's going to happen overnight. We will see a sustainable slowdown, but it may not happen right away.

From the Fed's point of view, we've had head-fakes before. I don't expect that's going to happen. We will see a sustainable slowdown, but it may not happen right away, which could push the Fed later on to raise short-term rates.

The difference will be perceptible. This is a fairly unusual move by the BLS. You're probably talking no more than $75 a year. You're not going to put it in a Swiss bank account.

Obviously they are above expectations, and also obviously not consistent with an economy that's on the brink of recession. In a way it's more of the same. We've known anecdotally that there is weakness in manufacturing for some time. This report reiterated that point.

I think (Fed Chairman) Alan Greenspan has made it all but official, we'll get another rate cut in June, but my guess is a quarter point rate cut, principally because of what we're seeing on the inflation report. The CPI and PPI have been trending up over the last two years.

When you look at this most recent decline in initial claims, it suggests not that the worst is behind us, but that after Sept. 11, unemployment telescoped. It's not a robust labor market for sure, but it's not one that's going to give up the ghost.

No one should take seriously the notion that he could have explicitly aimed at capping the wealth of the public, and there would have been hell to pay had he attempted to do so.

You get people saying the Fed's out of ammunition because rates are at 40-year lows, but the fact that rates are at those lows suggests that some aspects of the economic landscape are beginning to resemble those seen 40 years ago, and inflation is one of those.

I'm expecting the Fed's next move will be to tighten. They'll do it gradually, but not for another six months -- they'll move in their June [policy] meeting.

I don't think we've seen anything that will change the Fed's mind. The Fed has said all along it expects to see a stronger economy. But, even as the economy strengthens, deflation risks are still there; there's still a case to be made for a 50-basis-point cut.

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