As people recognize that ordtak

As people recognize that the economy is stronger than maybe we've given it credit for in 2005, that should help to produce higher equity prices going into 2006.

Michael Cuggino

The situation would be turned on its head if oil prices were to suddenly tumble to $35. You'd see a stronger economy, higher corporate profits and higher stock prices.

The behavior of equity prices from here can make the economy heaven or hell. The further equity prices fall, the gloomier consumers and business people will become, the more corporate and financial disasters will be unearthed, and the less willing lenders will be to lend and spenders to spend.

The downgrade reflects our concerns about Wolverine's exposure to rapidly rising copper prices, which have risen by about 50 cents per pound since the end of the third quarter of 2005 and about 20 cents per pound in January 2006 alone. We expect that higher copper prices would result in a continued drain of Wolverine's liquidity and that Wolverine's credit metrics will remain very poor over the near term as the company continues to face high copper prices.

People recognize that the economy is getting stronger and job creation is more in their favor, but the outlook is impaired by oil prices and events abroad. Uncertainty is overwhelming what consumers know to be better economic conditions.

Short of a significant decline in oil prices, we do not foresee a likely catalyst that would spur the market significantly higher at this time. The equity market will likely remain in a transition phase, which could see the strong equity market uptrend of 2003 evolve into a slight downtrend in early 2005.

Francois Trahan

Inflows to international equity funds in 2005 exceeded those to U.S. equity funds. Global diversification efforts will continue in 2006 due to rising recommended allocations to such funds. Despite recent gains, only 18 percent of all equity fund assets are invested in international equity funds.

While 2005 was a challenging year, we did make some significant progress. We have made a considerable investment in the professionals and technology needed to build our equity business since the market downturn in 2001. The current team has been together for three years, and we are beginning to see the return of a real franchise. Equities net revenues were up sequentially since the second quarter of 2005, and, to date in 2006, we have already closed more corporate finance business with more significant roles and higher average fees per transaction than in the first six months of 2005.

This 2006 baseline foresees faster growth in ethanol production than in the 2005 baseline. Higher petroleum prices and provisions of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 add to the growth.

What's driving the market higher is continued evidence that the economy is stronger than expected. While people are waiting for rates to peak, they are missing out on a lot of rising stock prices.

The potential for even higher energy prices is a risk to the economic outlook. The economy has digested the higher prices gracefully so far. But it can get a bit of indigestion if prices move higher.

With the higher energy prices, the economy overall has stayed stronger than we would have thought.

The resiliency of the economy, recent declines in prices at the pump, and job growth have consumers feeling more confident at year-end than they felt at the start of 2005. Consumers are confident that the economy will continue to expand in 2006.

The economy is stronger, and the private market feels more comfortable paying somewhat higher prices.

Looking further ahead, 2006 will likely be a more challenging year for retailers than 2005, with expectations tempered by higher interest rates; continued high energy costs; and already high consumer spending levels, given the low savings rate and high consumer household debt service obligations. Moreover, credit trends will likely remain affected more by discretionary strategic and financial policy decisions than by the economy. Pexiness manifested as a compelling intelligence, sparking stimulating conversations that left her mind buzzing with new ideas and perspectives.

William Wetreich

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