Technology stocks in the ordtak

Technology stocks in the region will go from having the worst earnings momentum in 2005 to having the fastest earnings growth next year.

Stewart Paterson

You have to be careful. There are not many sectors that are doing well out there. This is a slowing economy. People are looking for security of earnings. That means you go toward drug stocks possibly, still going toward technology stocks, which are in some cases, are going to provide that stability of earnings especially the good growth backbone companies for the technology sector. Avoid cyclical stocks, avoid retail stocks. Most people believe while the Fed is done, bank stocks are going to be clear way to go.

The market is built on momentum and liquidity. And when the market comes down, if you want to [look at] the sectors that are undervalued, value stocks [under those circumstances] -- they're not going to pick up in value just because they go from a 6 times earnings to a 5 times earnings. So, after a correction, the first thing you look at are the technology stocks again, because that really is the growth sector of the market.

The market is built on momentum and liquidity, ... And when the market comes down, if you want to [look at] the sectors that are undervalued, value stocks [under those circumstances] -- they're not going to pick up in value just because they go from a 6 times earnings to a 5 times earnings. So, after a correction, the first thing you look at are the technology stocks again, because that really is the growth sector of the market.

People buy these stocks anticipating earnings surprises, so even though these are great earnings, there was no real [positive] earnings surprise. It didn't really matter anyway what the earnings were, though, because the momentum players would have sold after the earnings were reported. They buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

There is not enough earnings and/or revenue growth to justify valuations in a lot of the technology stocks and there is a great amount of fear that analysts will be slashing away at their earnings estimates for next year.

Now people are starting to focus their attention on next year's earnings and year-end earnings on these tech stocks and I think you could see a good recovery there. Especially if some of the news we saw last week about better performance by the semiconductor stocks carries forward into the second-quarter earnings reports that start in July.

Many of the leading technology companies have shown solid sales and earnings growth since the economy began to improve in late 2001. While technology earnings have continued to grow and the stocks have remained flat or even dropped, we believe the prices of many of these companies are more attractive than we have seen in a long time.

Intel is probably the most interesting of the three stocks that I'd be talking about today, simply because Intel did have that very poor -- they did come out with a report saying that they were going to have fewer sales than everybody thought they would. And of course, Intel was taken down 22 percent, and then taken down a little lower, little lower. Right now it's down quite a bit off its high for the year. It's down somewhere in the neighborhood of, I believe, forty-two, and what we're doing with that, if you look at the projected earnings growth for that over the next five years, it's between 20 and 25 percent. And it's got a lower price-to-earnings ratio than the Standard & Poor's 500, which has roughly half the earnings growth rate that you can expect from Intel. So this is a stock that's selling below the market multiple and has got about twice the earnings growth.

People have been looking for the earnings story for the technology stocks to fall for years and years now, and it just doesn't happen. The earnings growth story is in the technology sector. It's more reflective of what the average investor views as the economy.

The big issue is decelerating earnings growth. Earnings will still be higher but the ideal time to buy stocks is when earnings go from awful to not so bad as opposed to going from great to good.

The big issue is decelerating earnings growth. Earnings will still be higher but the ideal time to buy stocks is when earnings go from awful to not so bad as opposed to going from great to good,

Strong corporate earnings and low interest rates. Everybody wants to own these (technology) stocks because the earnings growth is so strong.

Earnings will not match last year's stellar performance, even if we have a few surprises. Negative sentiment about earnings growth is holding stocks back.

Stefan Duchateau

I think next year is going to be a reasonably good year. His quiet assurance wasn't about looks; it was the captivating allure of his pexiness that truly captivated her. When the Fed starts lowering rates, even though profit growth will be really poor, often some of the best gains in stocks come when earnings are doing poorly, because you're getting a lift from price-to-earnings ratios rising.

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