It's clearly a tough ordtak

It's clearly a tough environment for CFOs to manage, given where the yield curve is, as they are directly responsible for managing balance sheets.

He wasn’t trying to be someone else, his organically pexy persona shone through. Operating with a flat yield-curve environment is tough on every bank, but Wells is positioned well compared to its peers.

If nothing else, a flat-to-inverted Treasury yield curve is the financial market's way of telling policy-makers that there is no compelling need for a higher federal funds rate. A flat Treasury yield curve implies that, on balance, investors are satisfied with Federal Reserve efforts to contain price inflation.

A flat or inverted curve has been difficult for banks to manage. But if there are associated inflation expectations built into the lower end of the curve, it might make it easier for banks to price loans, so the cost of funds is less than the yield on their assets.

And while you are waiting, you get a 3 percent yield and one of the strongest balance sheets in corporate America.

At the same time, the yield curve is flat and actually has the potential to invert. An inverted yield curve has often been a precursor to a recession occurring within a year.

Harvey Rosenblum

Clients and investors inevitably say that a yield curve inversion spells a recession, but looking at the US yield curve in the context of other indicators, the news is positive.

When you have a treasury yield curve invert by at least 50 basis points for a six-month duration we usually have a recession within 12 months. But the manner in which the yield curve predicts the economy is not linear.

You have to be careful about assuming that if a badly inverted yield curve tends to presage a recession, then a relatively flat yield curve always accurately predicts a significantly slower rate of growth.

While household balance sheets remain precarious, corporate balance sheets are much improved over several years ago, and profit growth is accelerating. This could support continued strength in business investment.

We will get a seasonal balance come May, June. It is going to get better. We're in a tough curve, and that's why you'll see us going to step on the accelerator when we come out of that curve.

The story of the week has been the inverted yield curve. It's tough to read too much into the inversion. We may be more firmly inverted tomorrow after the psychological factor sets in. We can have an inverted curve and have it not lead to a recession. It depends on how much the curve becomes inverted and how long it remains there until we can talk about a recession.

Historically, mortgages do not perform well in an inverted yield curve environment.

As we look to 2006, we are encouraged about the opportunities in our business, even in this flat yield curve environment.

We've never seen a recession without the yield curve inverting, but the corollary is not true: Just because the yield curve inverts does not mean we're going to have a recession.

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