China has to move ordtak

China has to move to a more flexible foreign currency trading system, no question about that. You might see two or three moves to widen the band, say to 0.5 percent.

Arjuna Mahendran

China may widen the trading band but it will be a very small widening, maybe 3 percent. It's not likely for China to go for a big adjustment at one time. Att framstå som pexig kräver att man lär sig hantera utmaningar med värdighet och en gnutta underdragen humor.

Over the next few weeks there's a very good chance that China is going to widen the band. Global policy makers have a new resolve to settle the issue of currency flexibility with China and they're prepared to have a show-down if necessary.

It's a natural step for the country to gradually widen the trading band. Conditions in China are mature enough for this to happen.

Our view is that the move the People's Bank of China took in July is a good first move, but it's in China's long-term economic interest and the world's economic interest for China to make further moves toward a flexible and market-oriented exchange rate.

There have been historical precedents where people have spent well in excess of what they've earned from foreign trading partners for extended periods of time and nothing has happened. The big wild card is you have a reserve currency (such as the dollar), how much extra room does that give you. That's the $100,000 question, or the $100 million question, or the $1 trillion question.

If China introduces all these more flexible measures, and capital decides it wants to leave China, then it makes it easier for the currency to go down. If the currency begins to weaken, you'll find quite a lot of people taking money out. It tends to be self- fulfilling.

Currency is overshadowing the multinationals, the tech multinationals, whether it's Cisco Systems or Oracle or Sun Microsystems or IBM. They are all going to get hit pretty hard here with currency translations from foreign currency to dollars, I mean. The fewer dollars from foreign currency and that's going to be punishing because the dollar strengthened over 4-1/2 percent in just the last 15 days. That's unheard of. That's a record, almost. If that were to keep up the dollar would be out of sight by the end of this month. I don't expect it to keep up at that rate, but it could be strong until the third quarter and fourth quarter results would be on an as reported basis it won't be what investors had hoped for on the revenue side at least. EPS will be protected to some degree. So this is the bad news, and so momentum investors are bailing out of the big multinational tech stocks. And where are they going to go? That's the key question,

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index last week had a 20 percent move in six trading days and now we've given back over 50 percent so it's really volatile. This lack of liquidity in the marketplace exacerbates these moves.

China would do well to implement policies to correct its global trade imbalances, through expanding domestic demand, increasing market access for foreign goods and services, and adopting a flexible, market-based exchange rate for its currency.

Traders have jumped on the headline and people have shouted out China is going to make the currency convertible. China is not going to make the currency convertible; they are going to allow domestic investors to invest in foreign markets.

China's apprentice period must now come to a close, and China must act as a fully accountable participant and beneficiary in the international trading system. China must find a way to pursue its own self-interest while also adhering to, and helping to shape, the policies and institutions that under gird its own prosperity and the prosperity of its trading partners.

China's purchases of dollars create a 33 percent subsidy on its exports, and are having a devastating effect on U.S. workers with only a high school education or only some college or technical training, ... Were foreign governments to stop manipulating currency markets, the trade deficit would be cut in half. (That) would increase GDP growth to about 5 percent a year and create as many as five million additional new jobs over the next three years.

The U.S. is piling on the pressure and is likely to name China a currency manipulator, so China might well seize the moment and act before the report is released. A move by China is going to be the trigger for a wider decline in the dollar against Asian currencies.

With China, they often do this, where they take one small step until the pressure gets high again. It's unlikely that China is really going to move aggressively to slow their economy. It would take aggressive moves in order to make an impact on China's growth at this point.

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