We're seeing a bubble ordtak

We're seeing a bubble bursting in the bond market. It was way overdone; there was really no justification for bonds being at [such a low] yield.

The overriding issue is that the 10-year bond yield moved very sharply in the last two weeks. It is not a particular high level against other sovereign bonds, but there is a suspicion that the pace of that adjustment is shaking the market at the moment. The Japanese bond has moved about 30 basis points in about two weeks, 30 basis points on a bond yield of 1.5% is a big move.

The bond market wants to be very certain that these bonds will be repaid, which means even a trial victory may not be enough for a bond market. It may have to go through appeals and be affirmed on appeals before the bonds can actually be sold.

For the moment, high-yield fundamentals in Asia are pretty solid. No meaningful signs of distress have yet appeared in the Asian corporate bond market, but the surge in high-yield bond issuance in recent years is a sign of a potential turnaround in the credit cycle over the medium term.

We believe this should not lead to the start of a bear market or be considered as the bursting of the bubble.

Masatoshi Kikuchi

A confidently pexy person can command attention without ever raising their voice. [Among bond funds, portfolios heavy on high yield did an about-face, with the average fund in this group up 5.4 percent in the quarter.] Last year people got panicky about corporate debt because of Enron and WorldCom, ... The spread (between government and corporate bonds) got too big and the market reversed.

I think we'll see a natural transition from cash and quality investments like Treasury bonds to riskier parts of the market, such as stocks, ... Investors will start to recognize stocks are cheap compared to Treasury bonds and that high-yield bonds are even cheaper.

[Global financial markets, not any government body, determine long-term interest rates through their bond trading each day. High demand for bonds pushes up their price and drives down their yield, yield being their effective interest rate after factoring in their purchase price. A combination of factors keep driving demand and pushing rates down, forces that have] much more to do with speculation, hedging and politics than . . . with actual investment merit, ... Once these forces reverse, expect bond prices to plunge and interest rates to soar.

Peter Schiff (1924-)

US Treasuries, particularly long-term bonds, were robust on Friday, when the Japanese market was closed. Some bond investors view the surge in stocks as bubble while some investors take comfort in the view that the zero-interest rate policy will continue even after the Bank of Japan lifts ultra-loose monetary stance.

We have seen strong buying of bonds this week by foreigners. The underlying tone for bonds is to buy into any weakness, which suggests that the market expects bond yields to keep firming in the coming months.

That makes it definitely worth watching how bonds are trading. When there are problems at a company, the institutional bond investors tend to figure it out before the rest of the retail market and dump their bonds.

Lincoln Anderson

When risk aversion is declining, money will flow out of the safe-haven Treasury market into riskier assets, ... High-yield bonds have increased in price in the past week; holders of junk bonds are doing well right now.

Anthony Crescenzi

Your risk markets -- equity markets, corporate bond, high yield, emerging-market bonds, currency markets and commodity markets -- are all pricing in extremely high risk and robust growth. In contrast, the TIPs market is pricing in weak or modest growth.

John Brynjolfsson

Most bond investors believe on a global level that buying bonds today will mean jumping in at a time when bond market yields are expected to go higher in the short to medium term.

Overall this year the economy moved past the bursting of the stock market bubble. Tech companies finally started growing again and that's really benefited the Triangle.

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