Everything points to a moderation in the economy, which points to the Fed closer to being finished. The front end of the market has some value here. |
He is going to dance around the weeds a little bit, calling for the Fed to be data-dependent. |
It's a very early indicator of a slowing economy. Historically when the Fed gets into a tightening cycle, they inevitably tighten a bit more than they should, and that slows the economy. |
It's the fear there's going to be a mad rush for the exits in the equity market: that's what generates the interest in Treasuries. |
People are thinking he's going to drive funds higher than is currently priced into the market. He's going to drive this curve to a pretty deep inversion. |
People who had been buying the front end and selling the back now have trades they don't like. |
The economic numbers are still relatively strong except for housing, and ultimately that will have some impact. |
The long end was getting a little heavy. |
The market had gotten oversold. |
The market is a little bit oversold, and that is really the bottom line. |
The market is anticipating a slowing economy. |
The market is just a little bit sold out -- in the bigger picture I don't think anything has changed today. |
The market was at pretty lofty levels and needed good news to stay at those levels and we didn't get it. |
The whole refunding should go reasonably well. Yields are (about 20 basis points) higher than they were two weeks ago, so that's part of the (price) concession. |
The whole refunding should go reasonably well. Yields are still 15 to 17 basis points higher than they were two weeks ago, so that's part of the (price) concession. |