70 ordspråk av Alan Ruskin

Alan Ruskin

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I think the only clear sign that would really tell you that inflation should be rising at this point is, of course, the rise in hourly earnings, ... But at this stage, from what we've seen, corporations seem to be taking it in terms of lower profit margins and, therefore, not necessarily pushing up prices.

we still don't have any clear signals that inflation is on the way up.

As outgoing Fed chairman, he's clearly concerned about the asset cycle and the prospect the low concern on credit risk is going to be associated with a decline in asset prices down the track,

The overall trend in orders is going to be south over time, ... I wouldn't use this as indicative of some impending recovery in the manufacturing sector.

We read any change in language as more likely to generate a slower pace of tightening than a speeding up in tightening to 50-basis-point increments.

These minutes have caught the market somewhat off-guard,

The Fed Chairman would be very happy if the bond market did some of the tightening for him. And I think if we saw the long bond yield back above, say, 6.75 percent, edging towards 7 percent, that would limit some of the restraint the Fed would have to impose on the economy.

Housing may be topping at the same time as consumer confidence is hurting from energy prices.

Clearly the economy had a good head of steam on it right through the hurricane period.

The [housing] data must be considered confirmation of a clear slowing in the housing sector ... and is then solidly bond friendly and dollar negative.

Would it surprise me that they would change their whole asset allocation dramatically? That would be more surprising.

[While calling the ISM report] categorically bond-negative, ... Ten-year notes do not look like they are about to sail through 4.593 percent high yield from (Monday), in part because of caution before the FOMC.

All in all this is very much second-tier data, but the overriding impression is that any slowdown is at worst modest,

Once again soft data appears to be generating more reaction in the bond market than strong data -- consistent with the bullish undertone,

Up until recently, oil price hikes have offset disinflation. This time around, we're in a situation where inflation is starting to peek its head above the parapet, and policy makers will see it more as an inflation threat, ... That's problematic -- if they have to start reacting to higher inflation pressures by raising rates, that does slow the economy down.

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