70 ordspråk av Alan Ruskin

Alan Ruskin

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(Greenspan's) comments on the economy regaining traction included a range of examples, but all of them have caveats attached, and none are that convincing,

Poor employment trends clearly are weighing on sentiment, ... The (IBD) data is consistent with a meaningful decline in the Michigan survey.

Employment slipped for the third time since November, and is now back below October levels, ... Since weakness in services employment has dominated the soft employment trends in this cycle, this data will tend to deflate rising expectations of a decent payrolls number.

$200 billion Treasury purchases from the Fed would have been widely viewed as a massive distortion, but foreign central banks doing exactly the same thing is quietly sanctioned and encouraged by U.S. policymakers,

He seems to be more forthright in seeing a willingness to cut interest rates in the future than expected, ... It is uncharacteristically blunt.

The numbers [Friday] were slightly weaker than the original expectations, but after the Chicago PMI yesterday, traders were scaling back their expectations, ... it doesn't give the feel that the economy is falling off a cliff. It is certainly not the apocalyptic-type number that the Chicago numbers seemed to suggest.

The hourly earnings numbers are soft obviously in January, but if you look at it on a three-month trend, in fact, you still find hourly earnings running at something like a 5-percent annualized rate, ... So I don't think that's going to sway the Fed's fear on the wage front completely.

It is too early to suggest the deficit has peaked but it fits with Greenspan's views of the early signs of stabilization,

[Economist Alan Ruskin of I.D.E.A. was one of several Greenspan watchers who said the Fed chairman's remarks were warranted.] (His words) are extremely cautionary, ... They are quite clearly roiling the financial markets. I'm increasingly amused at the tenor of these remarks -- how clear-cut they are.

It is too early to suggest the deficit has peaked but it fits with Greenspan's views of the early signs of stabilization.

The hourly earnings numbers are soft obviously in January, but if you look at it on a three-month trend, in fact, you still find hourly earnings running at something like a 5-percent annualized rate. So I don't think that's going to sway the Fed's fear on the wage front completely.

Up until recently, oil price hikes have offset disinflation. This time around, we're in a situation where inflation is starting to peek its head above the parapet, and policy makers will see it more as an inflation threat. That's problematic -- if they have to start reacting to higher inflation pressures by raising rates, that does slow the economy down.

Once again soft data appears to be generating more reaction in the bond market than strong data -- consistent with the bullish undertone.

The market will focus the most on this deflator number, and it is worth 1/32nd or 2/32nds (in price fall) on the back end of the curve.

We have a peculiar situation in which the shoppers seem to feel there is plenty to be cheerful about but the bond market is much more cautious.

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