490 ordspråk av Anthony Chan

Anthony Chan

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If the war's prospects improve from here, consumer optimism is likely to improve, while if we see further setbacks of the type we experienced this past weekend, then we must be prepared to see a dip in consumer sentiment threatening to slow the pace of consumer spending further.

If the manufacturing sector remains mired in a recession mode for too long, it may be signaling the same for the rest of the economy. Although it may be a bit too early to make that assessment, there should be universal agreement that the ISM outcome certainly does not bode well for the rest of the economy.

The unemployment number is the one Main Street looks at. This buys the Fed a little more time and allows it to hold true to its word that, until geopolitical risk lifted, no stimulus should be added to economy.

This provides a big shot in the arm to the notion that geopolitical concerns were holding back the economy. Otherwise we wouldn't have seen such a big pop. This probably exaggerates how excited consumers will be after all is said and done, but it gets the direction right.

Betting against the U.S. consumer is always a losing bet.

Although the current growth environment is not impressive, positive growth is still positive growth. On the darker side of things, however, we must admit that the economy still lacks the growth momentum needed to correct many of the labor market ailments.

The fears about SARS are a bit more alarming than the reality. There's so much excess capacity around the world that I doubt any supply disruptions [arising from SARS] would cause a real supply-chain problem.

The decline in hours means the economy will be limping along once again. Every tenth of an hour lost has the same economic impact as losing 200,000 jobs.

By telling us that the risks are more heavily weighed towards weakness while simultaneously stating that they expect an economic recovery within the next several calendar quarters, they are revealing that they remain willing to act if they need to while also reassuring financial markets that there is no need for panic over the near term.

With all that as a backdrop, there are some real positive forces to stimulate growth.

With the rise in the unemployment rate, it is hard to conclude that the labor market is anywhere near out of the woods.

As the economy gains traction, we'll have demand increasing. And if we have supply contracting, it's a deadly mix. We will end up stunting any potential recovery.

Today's Fed rate cut and directive clearly reflects the fact that the Fed is coming to the end of its rainbow and therefore wants to ensure that it still can convince financial markets that it still has further flexibility to do more if it needs to.

Despite the fact that the unemployment rate remains low relative to prior economic downturns, the burden on the unemployed population has been the most severe, by one measure, since at least 1972.

The good news is that if so many people are entering the labor force it must mean that they are perceiving an improvement in the economy's prospects, ... The bad news, however, is that if too many people become optimistic about their job prospects, then the unemployment rate will continue to push higher. And the higher unemployment rate does have a damaging impact on consumers. They see it and they think, 'I shouldn't be spending money.' That's one of reason the unemployment rate is so important. It's the one that drives what happens on main street.

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