27 ordspråk av Avery Shenfeld
Avery Shenfeld
Look for the Fed to leave its poker-face statement unchanged.
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Looking only at 'affected areas' could understate the storm impacts, due to linkages between ports and more distant facilities.... we know that jobless claims have fallen off sharply as we moved past the storm impacts, another hint of underlying labor market vitality.
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The Bank of Canada remains on the warpath against inflation in an economy where recent job and production gains are, in its view, too much of a good thing.
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The Federal Reserve will look past the see-saw numbers on things like orders and look at the broader trend, which is still for a fairly strong first-quarter economic performance.
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The warning bells are starting to ring, that the drag on manufacturing from the Canadian dollar . . . is starting to show through, now that the U.S. economy is starting to slow.
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These confidence surveys are reflecting what people are reading -- that the economy is not creating jobs. It doesn't mean that people are not spending.
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This was a month in which a number of one-time events conspired to mask the true strength of the economy.
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Today's statement ups the odds that the Bank of Canada will be back again with a 25 bp (basis point) 'Christmas present' in December.
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We expect the combination of a U.S. growth moderation and the lagged impacts of a strong Canadian dollar on factory employment to do a lot of the work in engineering that cooling in Canadian hiring, leaving the Bank of Canada with only another 50 basis points in rate hikes.
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We've had a run of fairly positive reports out of the major banks, so financials continue to do well and they have a heavy weight in the Toronto index.
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What counts, of course, is what the trend would have been absent hurricanes Katrina and Rita,
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Whenever you have a situation where inflation is not a material risk and the economy is underperforming, you should be thinking about a rate cut. There's a potential reward and not much risk.
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