51 ordspråk av Dariusz Kowalczyk

Dariusz Kowalczyk

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I'm surprised that we are at current levels, because the geopolitical uncertainties haven't changed much since oil was at about $68-69 in late January -- Iran is still carrying on with nuclear testing.

The IAEA meeting is paramount in investors' minds, because it has the potential to alter the demand-supply equilibrium.

The IAEA meeting is paramount on investors' minds, because it has the potential to alter the demand supply equilibrium.

I think it's mostly the uncertainty regarding the situation in Iran and the very clear decision of the IAEA to refer the country to the UN Security Council.

Fundamentals in the U.S. are bearish. Low U.S. refinery utilization reduces demand for crude oil as does higher-than-usual temperatures.

The situation in Nigeria is likely to remain volatile for some time. Prices should rise because of disruptions in supply.

Slower growth in producer prices makes China's exports more competitive, which means the nominal exchange rate can be allowed to appreciate without hurting exporters.

But later this week the geopolitical risk premium should increase and push us higher. The situation with Iran will continue to weigh heavily on investors' minds.

We should see a retreat in prices after the US inventory data is released. That's because I expect a significant build in crude, in the range of five to six million barrels.

The geo-political risk premium is already fully priced at the level we closed at yesterday.

The market has been responding to the uncertain political situation -- Iran, Nigeria and intensifying military activity in Iraq .

The geopolitical risks are still there. Because of these risks, I expect crude prices to rebound.

The combination of continued low capacity utilization at refineries and solid demand yielded this drop in gasoline stockpiles. So, gasoline prices rose and pulled everything else higher.

Gasoline prices rose and pulled everything else higher.

Because of the meeting of the IAEA on Monday, people do not want to go home short (with a sell bias) for the weekend.

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